Quevilly 0-0 Valenciennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Quevilly at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Quevilly vs Valenciennes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Quevilly and Valenciennes meet at Stade Robert Diochon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 November 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Quevilly's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Quevilly at Stade Robert Diochon this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Valenciennes have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 0W 5D 5L. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Valenciennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Valenciennes have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Quevilly's 1.00 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Valenciennes's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Quevilly, 0 for Valenciennes and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Quevilly — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Valenciennes — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 52% versus Valenciennes 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 50% | Valenciennes 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 1.35 xG and Valenciennes 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 0.967 / defence 1.128 | Valenciennes attack 0.821 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.178. Data: 52 Quevilly games / 52 Valenciennes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Quevilly 43% | Draw 27% | Valenciennes 30%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Valenciennes 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Quevilly are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Quevilly if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Quevilly 60% | Valenciennes 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Valenciennes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 43% | Draw 27% | Valenciennes 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Quevilly 1.35 / Valenciennes 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 0.967 / def 1.128 | Valenciennes attack 0.821 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Quevilly (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Valenciennes xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs Valenciennes kick off?
Quevilly vs Valenciennes kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Valenciennes?
Quevilly 0 - 0 Valenciennes.
Where is Quevilly vs Valenciennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Valenciennes part of?
Quevilly vs Valenciennes is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Valenciennes?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 43% chance of winning, Valenciennes a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Quevilly the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Valenciennes?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Quevilly and Valenciennes will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs Valenciennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Valenciennes?
Record (4 meetings): Quevilly 1W | Draws 3 | Valenciennes 0W.
What form are Quevilly and Valenciennes in?
Quevilly (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Valenciennes (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Quevilly's attack at 0.97x the league average against Valenciennes's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Valenciennes's attack (0.82x) against Quevilly's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Quevilly Win
43%
2.35
27%
3.68
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Quevilly xG
Total xG
2.44
1.09
Valenciennes xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
14%
7.01
8%
12.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.8 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Valenciennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Valenciennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Quevilly and 1.09 for Valenciennes, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Valenciennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Quevilly come into this having played 52 games, going 14W 19D 19L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-D. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Valenciennes sit at 1.04 PPG from 52 outings (11W 21D 20L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Valenciennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Quevilly against 1.04 for Valenciennes. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Quevilly's home form reads 7W 11D 8L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Valenciennes have taken 0.85 points per game from 26 outings (5W 7D 14L).
Attack vs Defence
Quevilly are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Valenciennes are on 0.98 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Blended
Valenciennes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and Valenciennes in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 14W 19D 19L in their last 52 games (1.17 PPG), while Valenciennes have gone 11W 21D 20L in their last 52 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or Valenciennes away?
Quevilly's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 1.23 PPG; Valenciennes away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Quevilly have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Valenciennes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Quevilly
4
Draws
1
Valenciennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Valenciennes?
From 6 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 1, Valenciennes have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Valenciennes last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2024, when Valenciennes 2-1 Quevilly.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Valenciennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 65%, Valenciennes 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Quevilly) and 31% (Valenciennes).
On the defensive side: Valenciennes in 31%; Quevilly have failed to score in 27% of games; Valenciennes in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Valenciennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play Valenciennes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Quevilly's recent matches and 31% of Valenciennes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Quevilly vs Valenciennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Quevilly's recent games and 31% of Valenciennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Quevilly and Valenciennes tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Valenciennes in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Quevilly's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Quevilly and Valenciennes finished level at 0-0 at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 1.35 xG and Valenciennes 1.09 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Quevilly fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Valenciennes landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 0.97 / defence 1.13 against Valenciennes attack 0.82 / defence 1.06, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 43% | Draw 27% | Valenciennes 30%, with Quevilly to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 50%, Valenciennes 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Valenciennes's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Quevilly 1.17 PPG, Valenciennes 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Quevilly (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Valenciennes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.