Bordeaux 0-1 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bordeaux at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bordeaux vs Estac Troyes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Matmut-Atlantique plays host to Bordeaux versus Estac Troyes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 2 December 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bordeaux's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bordeaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bordeaux's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stade Matmut-Atlantique this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Matmut-Atlantique. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Bordeaux are significantly better at Stade Matmut-Atlantique than their overall form suggests.
Estac Troyes have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Estac Troyes have posted 0W 5D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Bordeaux's favour (1.20 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Bordeaux 1W, Estac Troyes 1W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2022, ended 0–2 with Estac Troyes winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Bordeaux half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Estac Troyes half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bordeaux 40% versus Estac Troyes 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bordeaux 42% | Estac Troyes 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bordeaux 1.64 xG and Estac Troyes 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bordeaux attack 1.131 / defence 1.025 | Estac Troyes attack 0.817 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.149. Data: 52 Bordeaux games / 15 Estac Troyes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bordeaux 53% | Draw 25% | Estac Troyes 22%. Fair-value odds: Bordeaux 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Estac Troyes 4.55. Bordeaux hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bordeaux at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bordeaux if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bordeaux 40% | Estac Troyes 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bordeaux vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Dec 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bordeaux 53% | Draw 25% | Estac Troyes 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Bordeaux 1.64 / Estac Troyes 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Bordeaux attack 1.131 / def 1.025 | Estac Troyes attack 0.817 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Bordeaux (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Bordeaux xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Estac Troyes xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bordeaux vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Bordeaux vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What was the final score in Bordeaux vs Estac Troyes?
Bordeaux 0 - 1 Estac Troyes.
Where is Bordeaux vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What competition is Bordeaux vs Estac Troyes part of?
Bordeaux vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bordeaux vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Bordeaux a 53% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bordeaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bordeaux vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Bordeaux and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will Bordeaux vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Estac Troyes?
Record (2 meetings): Bordeaux 1W | Draws 0 | Estac Troyes 1W.
What form are Bordeaux and Estac Troyes in?
Bordeaux (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Estac Troyes (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bordeaux's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Estac Troyes's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. Flip it around — Estac Troyes's attack (0.82x) against Bordeaux's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 52/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bordeaux Win
53%
1.89
25%
3.98
22%
4.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Bordeaux xG
Total xG
2.60
0.96
Estac Troyes xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
4.56
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
19%
5.14
Win to Nil
20%
4.95
4%
23.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 11.7 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bordeaux vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Bordeaux and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Bordeaux and 0.96 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Bordeaux vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bordeaux come into this having played 52 games, going 25W 13D 14L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-W. The sample for Bordeaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Estac Troyes sit at 0.71 PPG from 52 outings (6W 19D 27L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bordeaux carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.98 PPG clear of Estac Troyes — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Bordeaux's home form reads 15W 6D 4L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Estac Troyes have taken 0.60 points per game from 25 outings (3W 6D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bordeaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bordeaux are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.13 scored and 1.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes in 67%.
Defensively: Bordeaux have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bordeaux
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bordeaux and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Bordeaux have gone 25W 13D 14L in their last 52 games (1.69 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 6W 19D 27L in their last 52 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bordeaux at home or Estac Troyes away?
Bordeaux's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bordeaux at home: 2.04 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Bordeaux or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bordeaux have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Estac Troyes go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bordeaux have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Estac Troyes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Bordeaux
0
Draws
3
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Estac Troyes?
From 4 meetings on record, Bordeaux have won 1, Estac Troyes have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bordeaux and Estac Troyes last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2024, when Estac Troyes 2-1 Bordeaux.
Who has won more matches between Bordeaux and Estac Troyes?
Estac Troyes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bordeaux 44%, Estac Troyes 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Bordeaux) and 72% (Estac Troyes). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 16% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bordeaux keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Estac Troyes in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bordeaux home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bordeaux play Estac Troyes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Bordeaux's games and 68% of Estac Troyes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bordeaux vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Bordeaux's matches and 72% of Estac Troyes's.
Do Bordeaux and Estac Troyes tend to score early?
Bordeaux have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Estac Troyes in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Estac Troyes defy the odds to beat Bordeaux 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estac Troyes beat Bordeaux 0-1 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bordeaux 1.64 xG and Estac Troyes 0.96 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bordeaux fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bordeaux attack 1.13 / defence 1.02 against Estac Troyes attack 0.82 / defence 1.13, drawn from 52/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bordeaux 53% | Draw 25% | Estac Troyes 22%, with Bordeaux to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Estac Troyes win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bordeaux 42%, Estac Troyes 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bordeaux's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bordeaux arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 0.71. Form was overturned, with Estac Troyes winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bordeaux (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.