Guingamp 0-1 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Guingamp at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs Paris FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Guingamp and Paris FC meet at Stade du Roudourou in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 December 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Guingamp (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp at Stade du Roudourou this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Paris FC's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Paris FC away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Guingamp against 1.40 for Paris FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Guingamp lead 2W to 0W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2023, ended 2–1 with Guingamp winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Guingamp — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Paris FC — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 51% versus Paris FC 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 47% | Paris FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.64 xG and Paris FC 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.206 / defence 0.922 | Paris FC attack 1.023 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.149. Data: 53 Guingamp games / 53 Paris FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 50% | Draw 25% | Paris FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Paris FC 4.00. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guingamp if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Guingamp 50% | Paris FC 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Dec 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 50% | Draw 25% | Paris FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Guingamp 1.64 / Paris FC 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.206 / def 0.922 | Paris FC attack 1.023 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Paris FC xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Paris FC kick off?
Guingamp vs Paris FC kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Paris FC?
Guingamp 0 - 1 Paris FC.
Where is Guingamp vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Paris FC part of?
Guingamp vs Paris FC is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 50% chance of winning, Paris FC a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Guingamp and Paris FC will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Paris FC?
Record (4 meetings): Guingamp 2W | Draws 2 | Paris FC 0W.
What form are Guingamp and Paris FC in?
Guingamp (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Paris FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Guingamp's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Paris FC's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. Flip it around — Paris FC's attack (1.02x) against Guingamp's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
50%
1.99
25%
4.08
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.73
1.08
Paris FC xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
17%
5.88
5%
20.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.6 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.08 for Paris FC, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Guingamp's recent record stands at 21W 16D 16L from 53 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Paris FC, meanwhile, have gone 20W 12D 21L across 53 games — 1.36 PPG, with W-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Paris FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Guingamp against 1.36 for Paris FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Guingamp have managed 10W 7D 9L from 26 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Paris FC's away record stands at 9W 8D 9L across 26 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Guingamp are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.17 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Paris FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 21W 16D 16L in their last 53 games (1.49 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 20W 12D 21L in their last 53 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Paris FC away?
Guingamp's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.42 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Paris FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Paris FC have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guingamp have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Paris FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Guingamp
2
Draws
4
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Paris FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 2, Paris FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Paris FC last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Guingamp 0-1 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Paris FC?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Paris FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 50%, Paris FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Guingamp) and 38% (Paris FC).
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Paris FC in 35%; Guingamp have failed to score in 31% of games; Paris FC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Paris FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Guingamp's recent matches and 50% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Paris FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Guingamp's recent games and 38% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Paris FC tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Paris FC in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Paris FC defy the odds to beat Guingamp 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat Guingamp 0-1 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.64 xG and Paris FC 1.08 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Guingamp fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.21 / defence 0.92 against Paris FC attack 1.02 / defence 1.07, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 50% | Draw 25% | Paris FC 25%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Paris FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 47%, Paris FC 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Paris FC's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.49 PPG, Paris FC 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Paris FC win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Paris FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.