Dunkerque 0-2 Laval – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Laval at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dunkerque vs Laval encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Laval travel to Stade Marcel-Tribut to take on Dunkerque in Ligue 2 (matchday 15). The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 November 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Dunkerque stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Dunkerque at home: 0W 2D 5L from their last 7 home games — 0.29 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.29 lags behind their overall 0.80 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Laval — last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Laval have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Laval are 1.40 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Dunkerque trading profile (last 14 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Laval trading profile (last 14 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 36% of Dunkerque's games and 29% of Laval's. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dunkerque 43% | Laval 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dunkerque 0.56 xG and Laval 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dunkerque attack 0.583 / defence 1.204 | Laval attack 1.016 / defence 0.729. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.178. Dunkerque's attack rating of 0.583 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.56. Laval bring a tight defence (rating 0.729, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Dunkerque's projected output down. Dunkerque's defence rating of 1.204 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Laval's projected output up. Data: built from Dunkerque's last 14 games and Laval's last 52.
Result probabilities: Dunkerque 14% | Draw 27% | Laval 59%. Fair-value odds: Dunkerque 7.01 | Draw 3.73 | Laval 1.70. The model has a clear lean to Laval (59%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 33% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Dunkerque's lower xG of 0.56 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Laval as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.00 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Dunkerque's last 7 home games and Laval's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dunkerque 43% (last 7 home games) | Laval 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dunkerque vs Laval | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 15 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Tribut • Kick-off: Saturday 25 November 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dunkerque 14% | Draw 27% | Laval 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 33% (No 67%) | xG Dunkerque 0.56 / Laval 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Dunkerque attack 0.583 / def 1.204 | Laval attack 1.016 / def 0.729 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Laval (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.56
Dunkerque xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Laval xG
33%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dunkerque vs Laval FAQs
What time does Dunkerque vs Laval kick off?
Dunkerque vs Laval kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What was the final score in Dunkerque vs Laval?
Dunkerque 0 - 2 Laval.
Where is Dunkerque vs Laval being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What competition is Dunkerque vs Laval part of?
Dunkerque vs Laval is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 15) (France).
Who is favourite to win Dunkerque vs Laval?
Our statistical model gives Dunkerque a 14% chance of winning, Laval a 59% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Laval the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dunkerque vs Laval?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Dunkerque and Laval will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (67%).
Will Dunkerque vs Laval have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Dunkerque's attacking strength (0.58x league average) is weighed against Laval's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.56. The same calculation in reverse, Laval's attack versus Dunkerque's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Dunkerque's last 14 games and Laval's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 18.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 0-2 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Laval Win
14%
7.01
27%
3.73
59%
1.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
19.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
14.1%
Away win
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.56
Dunkerque xG
Total xG
2.00
1.44
Laval xG
7.01
14%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
1.70
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.07
67%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
57%
1.74
Win to Nil
3%
29.61
34%
2.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 19.6 | 14.1 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.9 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dunkerque vs Laval Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dunkerque vs Laval?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.1%.
How many goals are Dunkerque and Laval expected to score?
The model projects 0.56 expected goals for Dunkerque and 1.44 for Laval, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Dunkerque vs Laval?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dunkerque come into this having played 14 games, going 3W 3D 8L for 0.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W.
On the other side, Laval sit at 2.07 PPG from 14 outings (9W 2D 3L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five.
Laval carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.21 PPG clear of Dunkerque — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Dunkerque's home form reads 0W 2D 5L across their last 7 home games, a 0.29 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.86 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Laval have taken 2.00 points per game from their last 7 away games (4W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Laval come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dunkerque are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Laval are on 1.14 scored and 0.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Laval in 29%.
Defensively: Laval in 57% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dunkerque
Blended
Laval
Blended
Dunkerque (Home) vs Laval (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dunkerque
Blended
Laval
Blended
❓ Dunkerque vs Laval Form FAQs
What form are Dunkerque and Laval in coming into this match?
Dunkerque have gone 3W 3D 8L in their last 14 games (0.86 PPG), while Laval have gone 9W 2D 3L in their last 14 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dunkerque at home or Laval away?
Laval's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dunkerque at home: 0.29 PPG; Laval away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Dunkerque or Laval been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dunkerque have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Laval in 57%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 20 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Dunkerque's record when hosting Laval specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Dunkerque
1
Draws
3
Laval
Recent Meetings
❓ Dunkerque vs Laval H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Laval?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Dunkerque have won 2, Laval have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Dunkerque and Laval last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 April 2026: Dunkerque 0-2 Laval.
Who has won more matches between Dunkerque and Laval?
Laval have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dunkerque see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Laval see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dunkerque 43%, Laval 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Dunkerque) and 43% (Laval).
On the defensive side: Laval in 71%; Dunkerque have failed to score in 57% of games; Laval in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dunkerque home games / Laval away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dunkerque vs Laval Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dunkerque and Laval matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Dunkerque's recent matches and 29% of Laval's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dunkerque and Laval matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Dunkerque's recent games and 43% of Laval's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Laval cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Dunkerque.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Laval beat Dunkerque 0-2 at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 0.56 xG and Laval 1.44 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 0.58 / defence 1.20 against Laval attack 1.02 / defence 0.73, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 14% | Draw 27% | Laval 59%, with Laval to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 43%, Laval 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 32%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dunkerque's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Laval's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Laval arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Ligue 2 fixtures — matchday 15
All Ligue 2 fixtures →
More French football predictions →