Clermont Foot 0-1 PAU – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Clermont Foot at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Clermont Foot face PAU.

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Full Analysis

Stade Gabriel Montpied plays host to Clermont Foot versus PAU in Ligue 2 (matchday 27). Kick-off: Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Clermont Foot have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Clermont Foot's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

PAU (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, PAU have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Clermont Foot against 0.90 for PAU. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Clermont Foot, 1 for PAU and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 3 Oct 2025, ended Clermont Foot 1–3 PAU — a PAU win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Clermont Foot half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 64%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

PAU half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 57% versus PAU 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 42% | PAU 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.59 xG and PAU 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 1.095 / defence 1.012 | PAU attack 1.252 / defence 1.268. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.178. PAU's defence rating of 1.268 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Clermont Foot's projected output up. PAU have an above-average attack rating of 1.252, which lifts their away xG to 1.49. Data: built from Clermont Foot's last 60 games and PAU's last 60.

Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 39% | Draw 26% | PAU 35%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | PAU 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.59 / 1.49) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Clermont Foot are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Clermont Foot's last 10 home games and PAU's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Clermont Foot 80% (last 10 home games) | PAU 50% (last 10 away games).

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