Clermont Foot 1-1 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Clermont Foot at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Clermont Foot face Bastia.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Clermont Foot and Bastia meet at Stade Gabriel Montpied in Ligue 2 (matchday 32). This fixture gets under way on Friday 24 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Current Form
Clermont Foot's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Clermont Foot have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bastia have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Bastia have gone 1W 5D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Clermont Foot, 1 for Bastia and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 31 Oct 2025, ended Clermont Foot 0–1 Bastia — a Bastia win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Clermont Foot — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 64%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Bastia — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 45% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 56% versus Bastia 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Clermont Foot 42% | Bastia 30%). Note also that Bastia surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Clermont Foot recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.29 xG and Bastia 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.933 / defence 1.069 | Bastia attack 1.021 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.174. Data: built from Clermont Foot's last 65 games and Bastia's last 64.
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 35% | Draw 30% | Bastia 35%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.85 | Draw 3.33 | Bastia 2.87. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 35% to win, with the draw at 30%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Clermont Foot 35% and Bastia 35%, with the draw at 30%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Clermont Foot 70% (last 10 home games) | Bastia 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 32 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Friday 24 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 35% | Draw 30% | Bastia 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Clermont Foot 1.29 / Bastia 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.933 / def 1.069 | Bastia attack 1.021 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Clermont Foot and Bastia level at 35% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Bastia xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Clermont Foot vs Bastia FAQs
What time does Clermont Foot vs Bastia kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Bastia kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 24 April 2026 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Bastia?
Clermont Foot 1 - 1 Bastia.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Bastia part of?
Clermont Foot vs Bastia is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 32) (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 35% chance of winning, Bastia a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Clermont Foot and Bastia will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Clermont Foot vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Clermont Foot's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Bastia's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Bastia's attack (1.02x) against Clermont Foot's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from Clermont Foot's last 65 games and Bastia's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
35%
2.85
30%
3.33
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.57
1.28
Bastia xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
10%
10.25
10%
10.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.6 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Clermont Foot vs Bastia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.28 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 64 outings, Clermont Foot have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 14W 20D 30L record — L-L-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Bastia's form line: 15W 27D 22L from 64 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.97 PPG for Clermont Foot against 1.12 for Bastia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Clermont Foot have posted 1.06 PPG from their last 31 home games (7W 12D 12L).
On the road, Bastia have gone 3W 14D 14L from their last 31 away games — 0.74 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.00 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Current Season
Bastia
Current Season
Clermont Foot (Home) vs Bastia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Clermont Foot
Current Season
Bastia
Current Season
❓ Clermont Foot vs Bastia Form FAQs
What form are Clermont Foot and Bastia in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 14W 20D 30L in their last 64 games (0.97 PPG), while Bastia have gone 15W 27D 22L in their last 64 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Bastia away?
Clermont Foot's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.06 PPG; Bastia away: 0.74 PPG.
Have Clermont Foot or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Clermont Foot have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Bastia in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Clermont Foot and Bastia, the earliest from October 2024. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 24 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Clermont Foot have gone 0W 2D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bastia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Clermont Foot
3
Draws
1
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Clermont Foot vs Bastia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Bastia?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Clermont Foot have won 0, Bastia have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Bastia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 April 2026: Clermont Foot 1-1 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Bastia?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 64%, Bastia 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for Clermont Foot and 26% for Bastia.
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot have failed to score in 36% of games; Bastia in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Clermont Foot vs Bastia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Clermont Foot and Bastia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 39% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Clermont Foot and Bastia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 26% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Bastia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 68% of Bastia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Clermont Foot and Bastia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot and Bastia finished level at 1-1 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.29 xG and Bastia 1.28 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.93 / defence 1.07 against Bastia attack 1.02 / defence 1.14, drawn from 65/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 35% | Draw 30% | Bastia 35%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 42%, Bastia 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Bastia's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 0.97 PPG, Bastia 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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