Caen 0-0 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Caen at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Caen face Estac Troyes.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Michel d'Ornano plays host to Caen versus Estac Troyes in Ligue 2 (matchday 22). Kick-off: Saturday 27 January 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Caen have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Caen have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Estac Troyes's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Estac Troyes's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Caen, 1.40 for Estac Troyes — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Estac Troyes edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2023, ended Caen 1–2 Estac Troyes — a Estac Troyes win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Caen — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 45%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Estac Troyes — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Caen 58% and Estac Troyes 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Caen 52% | Estac Troyes 58%). Note also that Estac Troyes surrender HT leads in 56% of cases while Caen recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 45% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Caen 1.29 xG and Estac Troyes 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Caen attack 1.039 / defence 0.864 | Estac Troyes attack 0.723 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.232 / away 1.133. Estac Troyes's attack rating of 0.723 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.71. Data: built from Caen's last 59 games and Estac Troyes's last 21.
Result probabilities: Caen 50% | Draw 29% | Estac Troyes 20%. Fair-value odds: Caen 1.98 | Draw 3.44 | Estac Troyes 4.88. Caen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Caen at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Caen if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Caen's last 10 home games and Estac Troyes's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Caen 40% (last 10 home games) | Estac Troyes 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Caen vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 22 | Venue: Stade Michel d'Ornano • Kick-off: Saturday 27 January 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Caen 50% | Draw 29% | Estac Troyes 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG Caen 1.29 / Estac Troyes 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Caen attack 1.039 / def 0.864 | Estac Troyes attack 0.723 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.232 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Caen (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Caen xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Estac Troyes xG
37%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Caen vs Estac Troyes FAQs
What time does Caen vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Caen vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 27 January 2024 at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What was the final score in Caen vs Estac Troyes?
Caen 0 - 0 Estac Troyes.
Where is Caen vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What competition is Caen vs Estac Troyes part of?
Caen vs Estac Troyes is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 22) (France).
Who is favourite to win Caen vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Caen a 50% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Caen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Caen vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Caen and Estac Troyes will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will Caen vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Caen's attack rating (1.04) and Estac Troyes's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Estac Troyes's attack (0.72x) against Caen's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from Caen's last 59 games and Estac Troyes's last 21 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Caen Win
50%
1.98
29%
3.44
20%
4.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Caen xG
Total xG
2.00
0.71
Estac Troyes xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
4.88
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
25%
4.03
6%
17.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 9.6 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.5 | 12.4 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 8.0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Caen vs Estac Troyes Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Caen vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Caen and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Caen and 0.71 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Caen vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Caen's recent record stands at 25W 16D 18L from 59 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Estac Troyes, meanwhile, have gone 9W 20D 30L across 59 games — 0.80 PPG, with W-L-D-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Caen by 0.74 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Estac Troyes heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Caen have managed 16W 8D 5L from their last 29 home games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Estac Troyes's away record stands at 4W 7D 18L across their last 29 away games, a 0.66 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Caen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Caen are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.17 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes in 66%.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Caen
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
Caen (Home) vs Estac Troyes (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Caen
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
❓ Caen vs Estac Troyes Form FAQs
What form are Caen and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Caen have gone 25W 16D 18L in their last 59 games (1.54 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 9W 20D 30L in their last 59 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Caen at home or Estac Troyes away?
Caen's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Caen at home: 1.93 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 0.66 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 1 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Estac Troyes have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Estac Troyes won Estac Troyes 3-0 Caen on 1 Feb 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Caen have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Estac Troyes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Caen
1
Draws
3
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Caen vs Estac Troyes H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Estac Troyes?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Caen have won 0, Estac Troyes have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Caen and Estac Troyes last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 February 2025: Estac Troyes 3-0 Caen.
Who has won more matches between Caen and Estac Troyes?
Estac Troyes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Caen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 62% of those situations.
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Caen 55%, Estac Troyes 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Caen) and 66% (Estac Troyes). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Caen keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Estac Troyes in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Caen home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Caen vs Estac Troyes Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Caen and Estac Troyes matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Caen's games and 66% of Estac Troyes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Caen and Estac Troyes matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Caen's matches and 66% of Estac Troyes's.
Do Caen and Estac Troyes matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Caen's recent matches and 72% of Estac Troyes's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Caen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Caen and Estac Troyes finished level at 0-0 at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Caen 1.29 xG and Estac Troyes 0.71 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Caen fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Caen attack 1.04 / defence 0.86 against Estac Troyes attack 0.72 / defence 1.01, drawn from 59/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Caen 50% | Draw 29% | Estac Troyes 20%, with Caen to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Caen 52%, Estac Troyes 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Caen's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Caen arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Caen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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