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Poisson rates Rodez at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rodez vs Boulogne encounter.

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Full Analysis

Stade Paul-Lignon plays host to Rodez versus Boulogne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Friday 26 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Rodez have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Rodez haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Rodez's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 games at Stade Paul-Lignon this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Boulogne (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Boulogne haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Boulogne away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Rodez's favour (2.20 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Where They Stand

The standings have Rodez (5th, 58 pts) 10 places above Boulogne (15th, 36 pts) — a 22-point gap in Ligue 2.

Rodez's home record this season stands at 8W 7D 2L. Away from home, Boulogne have posted 5W 6D 6L in Ligue 2 this season. Rodez: Promotion Playoffs.

Trading Data

Rodez goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).

Boulogne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rodez 74% and Boulogne 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 50% | Boulogne 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.29 xG and Boulogne 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.059 / defence 0.940 | Boulogne attack 0.879 / defence 0.893. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.258. Data: 34 Rodez games / 34 Boulogne games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Rodez 41% | Draw 31% | Boulogne 28%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Boulogne 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Rodez as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rodez if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Rodez 80% | Boulogne 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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