Auxerre 4-0 Laval – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Auxerre at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Laval encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Auxerre welcome Laval to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps in Ligue 2 (matchday 34). Kick-off is Tuesday 23 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Auxerre have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Auxerre have gone 7W 3D 0L in their last 10 home games (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Auxerre are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Laval stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Laval have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Auxerre carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Auxerre, 0 for Laval and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 19 Dec 2023, ended Auxerre 3–1 Laval — a Auxerre win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Auxerre trading profile (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Laval trading profile (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 58% versus Laval 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 48% | Laval 51%). Note also that Laval surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Auxerre recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.22 xG and Laval 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 1.105 / defence 0.872 | Laval attack 0.976 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.156. Data: built from Auxerre's last 33 games and Laval's last 71.
Result probabilities: Auxerre 41% | Draw 30% | Laval 29%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.46 | Draw 3.28 | Laval 3.46. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Auxerre at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Auxerre 60% (last 10 home games) | Laval 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Laval | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 34 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 41% | Draw 30% | Laval 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Auxerre 1.22 / Laval 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 1.105 / def 0.872 | Laval attack 0.976 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.157 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Laval xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Auxerre vs Laval FAQs
What time does Auxerre vs Laval kick off?
Auxerre vs Laval kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Tuesday 23 April 2024 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Laval?
Auxerre 4 - 0 Laval.
Where is Auxerre vs Laval being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Laval part of?
Auxerre vs Laval is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 34) (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Laval?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 41% chance of winning, Laval a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Laval?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Auxerre and Laval will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Auxerre vs Laval have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Auxerre's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Laval's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Laval's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Auxerre's last 33 games and Laval's last 71 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
41%
2.46
30%
3.28
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.20
0.98
Laval xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
15%
6.59
9%
11.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 10.9 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.3 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Auxerre vs Laval Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Laval?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Laval expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Auxerre and 0.98 for Laval, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Laval?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Auxerre's recent record stands at 25W 21D 25L from 71 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five.
Laval, meanwhile, have gone 27W 14D 30L across 71 games — 1.34 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Auxerre on 1.35 PPG, Laval on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Auxerre have managed 14W 12D 9L from their last 35 home games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Laval's away record stands at 13W 7D 15L across their last 35 away games, a 1.31 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Auxerre are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Laval are on 1.14 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Current Season
Laval
Current Season
Auxerre (Home) vs Laval (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Auxerre
Current Season
Laval
Current Season
❓ Auxerre vs Laval Form FAQs
What form are Auxerre and Laval in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 25W 21D 25L in their last 71 games (1.35 PPG), while Laval have gone 27W 14D 30L in their last 71 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Laval away?
Auxerre's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.54 PPG; Laval away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2023. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 23 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Auxerre
0
Draws
0
Laval
Recent Meetings
❓ Auxerre vs Laval H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Laval?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Auxerre have won 2, Laval have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Laval last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 April 2024: Auxerre 4-0 Laval.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Laval?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 54%, Laval 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Auxerre) and 46% (Laval).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Laval in 37%; Auxerre have failed to score in 26% of games; Laval in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Laval away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Auxerre vs Laval Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Auxerre and Laval matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Auxerre's recent matches and 40% of Laval's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Auxerre and Laval matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Auxerre's recent games and 46% of Laval's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Laval matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Auxerre's recent matches and 63% of Laval's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Auxerre run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Laval.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Laval 4-0 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.22 xG and Laval 0.98 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Auxerre beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Laval landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 1.10 / defence 0.87 against Laval attack 0.98 / defence 0.95, drawn from 33/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 41% | Draw 30% | Laval 29%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 48%, Laval 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Laval's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.35 PPG, Laval 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Auxerre win broke the near-deadlock. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.34 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Laval (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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