Bastia 2-0 Concarneau – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bastia at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bastia vs Concarneau encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 34 as Bastia welcome Concarneau to Stade Armand-Césari. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 23 April 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Bastia have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Bastia at Stade Armand-Césari this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Armand-Césari. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Concarneau — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Concarneau have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Bastia have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Bastia's 30% rate and Concarneau's 20% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Bastia, 0 for Concarneau and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Bastia trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Concarneau trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 19% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 39% versus Concarneau 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bastia 42% | Concarneau 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 1.03 xG and Concarneau 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 0.840 / defence 1.076 | Concarneau attack 0.780 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.156. Data: 71 Bastia games / 33 Concarneau games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 35% | Draw 32% | Concarneau 32%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Concarneau 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bastia are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bastia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.00 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bastia 30% | Concarneau 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Concarneau | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 Apr 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 35% | Draw 32% | Concarneau 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG Bastia 1.03 / Concarneau 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 0.840 / def 1.076 | Concarneau attack 0.780 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.157 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Bastia (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Concarneau xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Concarneau kick off?
Bastia vs Concarneau kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 23 April 2024 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Concarneau?
Bastia 2 - 0 Concarneau.
Where is Bastia vs Concarneau being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Concarneau part of?
Bastia vs Concarneau is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Concarneau?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 35% chance of winning, Concarneau a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Concarneau?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Bastia and Concarneau will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Concarneau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Concarneau?
Record (1 meetings): Bastia 0W | Draws 1 | Concarneau 0W.
What form are Bastia and Concarneau in?
Bastia (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Concarneau (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bastia's attack at 0.84x the league average against Concarneau's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Concarneau's attack versus Bastia's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
35%
2.84
32%
3.08
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Bastia xG
Total xG
2.00
0.97
Concarneau xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
13%
7.50
12%
8.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 13.2 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Concarneau?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Bastia and Concarneau expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Bastia and 0.97 for Concarneau, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Concarneau?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bastia come into this having played 33 games, going 12W 8D 13L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Concarneau sit at 1.06 PPG from 33 outings (9W 8D 16L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bastia on 1.33 PPG, Concarneau on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bastia's home form reads 7W 4D 5L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Concarneau have taken 1.12 points per game from 16 outings (5W 3D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bastia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bastia are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Concarneau are on 0.97 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Current Season
Concarneau
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Concarneau in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 12W 8D 13L in their last 33 games (1.33 PPG), while Concarneau have gone 9W 8D 16L in their last 33 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Concarneau away?
Bastia's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.56 PPG; Concarneau away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Bastia or Concarneau been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Concarneau in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Bastia
1
Draws
0
Concarneau
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Concarneau?
From 2 meetings on record, Bastia have won 1, Concarneau have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Concarneau last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2024, when Bastia 2-0 Concarneau.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Concarneau?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Concarneau see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Bastia 38% BTTS, Concarneau 19%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bastia) and 31% (Concarneau).
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Concarneau in 31%; Bastia have failed to score in 38% of games; Concarneau in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Concarneau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Concarneau?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Bastia's recent matches and 19% of Concarneau's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs Concarneau usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bastia's recent games and 31% of Concarneau's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Concarneau tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Concarneau in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bastia cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Concarneau.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia beat Concarneau 2-0 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.03 xG and Concarneau 0.97 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bastia beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Concarneau landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.84 / defence 1.08 against Concarneau attack 0.78 / defence 1.05, drawn from 71/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 35% | Draw 32% | Concarneau 32%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 42%, Concarneau 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Concarneau's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.33 PPG, Concarneau 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bastia win broke the near-deadlock. Bastia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Concarneau (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.