Concarneau 1-2 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Auxerre at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Concarneau vs Auxerre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Francis-Le Blé plays host to Concarneau versus Auxerre in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Tuesday 5 December 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Concarneau (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Concarneau, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Concarneau's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 3L across 7 games at Stade Francis-Le Blé this term (1.14 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Auxerre's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Auxerre have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Auxerre are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Concarneau goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Auxerre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Concarneau 38% versus Auxerre 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Concarneau 38% | Auxerre 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Concarneau 1.09 xG and Auxerre 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Concarneau attack 0.910 / defence 1.292 | Auxerre attack 1.132 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.110. Data: 16 Concarneau games / 16 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Concarneau 25% | Draw 25% | Auxerre 50%. Fair-value odds: Concarneau 4.00 | Draw 4.00 | Auxerre 2.00. Auxerre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Auxerre as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Auxerre if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Concarneau 57% | Auxerre 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Concarneau vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade Francis-Le Blé • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 Dec 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Concarneau 25% | Draw 25% | Auxerre 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Concarneau 1.09 / Auxerre 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Concarneau attack 0.910 / def 1.292 | Auxerre attack 1.132 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.240 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Concarneau xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Auxerre xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Concarneau vs Auxerre kick off?
Concarneau vs Auxerre kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 5 December 2023 at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What was the final score in Concarneau vs Auxerre?
Concarneau 1 - 2 Auxerre.
Where is Concarneau vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What competition is Concarneau vs Auxerre part of?
Concarneau vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Concarneau vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Concarneau a 25% chance of winning, Auxerre a 50% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Concarneau vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Concarneau and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Concarneau vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Concarneau and Auxerre?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Concarneau and Auxerre in?
Concarneau (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Auxerre (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Concarneau's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Auxerre's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. Flip it around — Auxerre's attack (1.13x) against Concarneau's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
25%
3.95
25%
4.01
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Concarneau xG
Total xG
2.71
1.62
Auxerre xG
3.95
25%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
20%
5.07
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
5%
20.02
17%
5.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 10.8 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Concarneau vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Concarneau and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Concarneau and 1.62 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Concarneau vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Concarneau's recent record stands at 5W 4D 7L from 16 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Concarneau is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Auxerre, meanwhile, have gone 8W 5D 3L across 16 games — 1.81 PPG, with L-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Auxerre by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Concarneau heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Concarneau have managed 2W 2D 3L from 7 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Auxerre's away record stands at 3W 3D 1L across 7 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Concarneau are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 2.06 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Auxerre in 62%.
Last 16 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Concarneau
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Concarneau and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Concarneau have gone 5W 4D 7L in their last 16 games (1.19 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 8W 5D 3L in their last 16 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Concarneau at home or Auxerre away?
Auxerre's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Concarneau at home: 1.14 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Concarneau
0
Draws
2
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Concarneau and Auxerre?
From 2 meetings on record, Concarneau have won 0, Auxerre have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Concarneau and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2024, when Auxerre 4-1 Concarneau.
Who has won more matches between Concarneau and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Concarneau see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Concarneau 57%, Auxerre 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Concarneau) and 57% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Concarneau have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Concarneau home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Concarneau play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Concarneau's games and 71% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Concarneau vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Concarneau's recent games and 57% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Concarneau and Auxerre tend to score early?
Concarneau have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Auxerre edge out Concarneau 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Concarneau 1-2 at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Concarneau 1.09 xG and Auxerre 1.62 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Concarneau attack 0.91 / defence 1.29 against Auxerre attack 1.13 / defence 0.96, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Concarneau 25% | Draw 25% | Auxerre 50%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Concarneau 38%, Auxerre 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Concarneau's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Auxerre's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.19. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.