Annecy 0-0 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Quevilly at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Annecy vs Quevilly encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Annecy welcome Quevilly to Parc des Sports in Ligue 2 (matchday 27). Kick-off is Saturday 2 March 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Annecy have gone 1W 1D 8L — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Annecy at home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Quevilly — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Quevilly have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Quevilly — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Annecy have won 2, Quevilly 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2023, ended Annecy 2–1 Quevilly — a Annecy win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Annecy trading profile (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Quevilly trading profile (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 45% versus Quevilly 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 50% | Quevilly 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.08 xG and Quevilly 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.763 / defence 1.265 | Quevilly attack 1.386 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 1.179 / away 1.091. Annecy's attack rating of 0.763 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.08. Quevilly's defence rating of 1.204 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Annecy's projected output up. Quevilly have an above-average attack rating of 1.386, which lifts their away xG to 1.91. Annecy's defence rating of 1.265 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Quevilly's projected output up. Data: built from Annecy's last 64 games and Quevilly's last 64.
Result probabilities: Annecy 21% | Draw 23% | Quevilly 56%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 4.79 | Draw 4.42 | Quevilly 1.77. The model has a clear lean to Quevilly (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Quevilly are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Annecy's last 10 home games and Quevilly's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Annecy 50% (last 10 home games) | Quevilly 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 27 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Saturday 2 March 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 21% | Draw 23% | Quevilly 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Annecy 1.08 / Quevilly 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.763 / def 1.265 | Quevilly attack 1.386 / def 1.204 | league avg home 1.179 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Quevilly (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.91
Quevilly xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Annecy vs Quevilly FAQs
What time does Annecy vs Quevilly kick off?
Annecy vs Quevilly kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Quevilly?
Annecy 0 - 0 Quevilly.
Where is Annecy vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Quevilly part of?
Annecy vs Quevilly is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 27) (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 21% chance of winning, Quevilly a 56% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Quevilly the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Annecy and Quevilly will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Annecy vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Annecy's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Quevilly's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Quevilly's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 1.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Annecy's last 64 games and Quevilly's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Quevilly Win
21%
4.79
23%
4.42
56%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Annecy xG
Total xG
3.00
1.91
Quevilly xG
4.79
21%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
1.77
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
15%
6.78
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
3%
32.46
19%
5.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 9.6 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Annecy vs Quevilly Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Annecy and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Annecy and 1.91 for Quevilly, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Quevilly?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Annecy come into this having played 64 games, going 16W 20D 28L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Quevilly sit at 1.17 PPG from 64 outings (17W 24D 23L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Annecy on 1.06 PPG, Quevilly on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Annecy's home form reads 11W 9D 12L across their last 32 home games, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Quevilly have taken 1.16 points per game from their last 32 away games (9W 10D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Annecy are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 1.27 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
Quevilly
Blended
Annecy (Home) vs Quevilly (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Annecy
Blended
Quevilly
Blended
❓ Annecy vs Quevilly Form FAQs
What form are Annecy and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 16W 20D 28L in their last 64 games (1.06 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 17W 24D 23L in their last 64 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Quevilly away?
Annecy's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.31 PPG; Quevilly away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2022. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 2 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Annecy's record when hosting Quevilly specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Annecy
2
Draws
0
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Annecy vs Quevilly H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Quevilly?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Annecy have won 2, Quevilly have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Quevilly last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 March 2024: Annecy 0-0 Quevilly.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Quevilly?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 41%, Quevilly 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Annecy) and 47% (Quevilly).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Quevilly in 34%; Annecy have failed to score in 34% of games; Quevilly in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Annecy vs Quevilly Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Annecy and Quevilly matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Annecy's recent matches and 44% of Quevilly's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Annecy and Quevilly matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Annecy's recent games and 47% of Quevilly's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Quevilly matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Annecy's recent matches and 62% of Quevilly's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Annecy's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy and Quevilly finished level at 0-0 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.08 xG and Quevilly 1.91 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Annecy fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Quevilly landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.76 / defence 1.26 against Quevilly attack 1.39 / defence 1.20, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 21% | Draw 23% | Quevilly 56%, with Quevilly to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 50%, Quevilly 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Quevilly's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.06 PPG, Quevilly 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Quevilly (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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