Ajaccio 1-3 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ajaccio at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ajaccio vs Annecy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ajaccio and Annecy meet at Stade François Coty in Ligue 2 (matchday 28). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 March 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Current Form
Ajaccio's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Ajaccio's home record over their last 10 home games: 8W 2D 0L (2.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Ajaccio are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Annecy (all games): 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 — 0.50 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Annecy's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Ajaccio's 1.10 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Annecy's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Annecy edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2023, ended Ajaccio 0–2 Annecy — a Annecy win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Ajaccio half-time and goal-timing data (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Annecy half-time and goal-timing data (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajaccio 34% versus Annecy 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajaccio 46% | Annecy 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajaccio 1.41 xG and Annecy 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajaccio attack 1.059 / defence 0.745 | Annecy attack 1.065 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.076. Ajaccio have a tight defence (rating 0.745), which is pulling Annecy's projected output down. Data: built from Ajaccio's last 27 games and Annecy's last 65.
Result probabilities: Ajaccio 49% | Draw 28% | Annecy 22%. Fair-value odds: Ajaccio 2.02 | Draw 3.51 | Annecy 4.52. Ajaccio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ajaccio as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ajaccio if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 61% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ajaccio 30% (last 10 home games) | Annecy 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajaccio vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 28 | Venue: Stade François Coty • Kick-off: Saturday 9 March 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajaccio 49% | Draw 28% | Annecy 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Ajaccio 1.41 / Annecy 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Ajaccio attack 1.059 / def 0.745 | Annecy attack 1.065 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Ajaccio (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Ajaccio xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Annecy xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ajaccio vs Annecy FAQs
What time does Ajaccio vs Annecy kick off?
Ajaccio vs Annecy kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Stade François Coty.
What was the final score in Ajaccio vs Annecy?
Ajaccio 1 - 3 Annecy.
Where is Ajaccio vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade François Coty.
What competition is Ajaccio vs Annecy part of?
Ajaccio vs Annecy is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 28) (France).
Who is favourite to win Ajaccio vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Ajaccio a 49% chance of winning, Annecy a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ajaccio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajaccio vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Ajaccio and Annecy will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Ajaccio vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ajaccio's attack at 1.06x the league average against Annecy's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Annecy's attack (1.06x) against Ajaccio's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from Ajaccio's last 27 games and Annecy's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajaccio Win
49%
2.02
28%
3.51
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Ajaccio xG
Total xG
2.26
0.85
Annecy xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
21%
4.76
5%
18.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.5 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ajaccio vs Annecy Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajaccio vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Ajaccio and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Ajaccio and 0.85 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajaccio vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 65 outings, Ajaccio have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 17W 13D 35L record — L-W-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Annecy's form line: 16W 21D 28L from 65 games, 1.06 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.98 PPG for Ajaccio against 1.06 for Annecy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ajaccio have posted 1.38 PPG from their last 32 home games (12W 8D 12L).
On the road, Annecy have gone 5W 11D 16L from their last 32 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajaccio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ajaccio are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.02 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajaccio
Blended
Annecy
Blended
Ajaccio (Home) vs Annecy (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ajaccio
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Ajaccio vs Annecy Form FAQs
What form are Ajaccio and Annecy in coming into this match?
Ajaccio have gone 17W 13D 35L in their last 65 games (0.98 PPG), while Annecy have gone 16W 21D 28L in their last 65 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajaccio at home or Annecy away?
Ajaccio's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajaccio at home: 1.38 PPG; Annecy away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Ajaccio or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Annecy in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 25 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Annecy have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ajaccio have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Annecy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Ajaccio
0
Draws
4
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Ajaccio vs Annecy H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Annecy?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Ajaccio have won 0, Annecy have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ajaccio and Annecy last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 April 2025: Annecy 2-0 Ajaccio.
Who has won more matches between Ajaccio and Annecy?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ajaccio see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 56% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajaccio 28%, Annecy 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Ajaccio) and 59% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Ajaccio keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Ajaccio have failed to score in 47% of games; Annecy in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajaccio home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ajaccio vs Annecy Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ajaccio and Annecy matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 28% of Ajaccio's recent matches and 50% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ajaccio and Annecy matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Ajaccio's recent games and 59% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajaccio and Annecy matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 56% of Ajaccio's recent matches and 66% of Annecy's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Annecy cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Ajaccio.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Ajaccio 1-3 at Stade François Coty, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajaccio 1.41 xG and Annecy 0.85 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Annecy outscored their 0.85 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajaccio attack 1.06 / defence 0.74 against Annecy attack 1.06 / defence 1.14, drawn from 27/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajaccio 49% | Draw 28% | Annecy 22%, with Ajaccio to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Annecy win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajaccio 46%, Annecy 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajaccio's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did.
Annecy's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ajaccio 0.98 PPG, Annecy 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Ajaccio (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Annecy (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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