Angers 3-1 Ajaccio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Angers at 60% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Angers face Ajaccio.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Angers host Ajaccio at Stade Raymond Kopa in Ligue 2 (matchday 27). Kick-off is Monday 4 March 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Angers — last 10 games: 5W 0D 5L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Angers have posted 9W 0D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Angers are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Ajaccio have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Ajaccio away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Angers 1.50 PPG, Ajaccio 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Angers's 20% BTTS rate and Ajaccio's 30% (from Angers's last 10 home games and Ajaccio's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Angers, 2 for Ajaccio and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Dec 2023, ended Angers 1–1 Ajaccio — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Angers trading profile (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Ajaccio trading profile (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Angers 48% versus Ajaccio 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 55% | Ajaccio 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 1.66 xG and Ajaccio 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 1.122 / defence 1.017 | Ajaccio attack 0.622 / defence 1.274. League average goals — home 1.161 / away 1.083. Ajaccio's defence rating of 1.274 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Angers's projected output up. Ajaccio's attack rating of 0.622 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.69. Data: built from Angers's last 26 games and Ajaccio's last 26.
Result probabilities: Angers 60% | Draw 26% | Ajaccio 14%. Fair-value odds: Angers 1.67 | Draw 3.90 | Ajaccio 6.98. The model has a clear lean to Angers (60%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Angers at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Angers's last 10 home games and Ajaccio's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Angers 20% (last 10 home games) | Ajaccio 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Ajaccio | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 27 | Venue: Stade Raymond Kopa • Kick-off: Monday 4 March 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 60% | Draw 26% | Ajaccio 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Angers 1.66 / Ajaccio 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 1.122 / def 1.017 | Ajaccio attack 0.622 / def 1.274 | league avg home 1.161 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Angers (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Angers xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Ajaccio xG
41%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Angers vs Ajaccio FAQs
What time does Angers vs Ajaccio kick off?
Angers vs Ajaccio kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Monday 4 March 2024 at Stade Raymond Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Ajaccio?
Angers 3 - 1 Ajaccio.
Where is Angers vs Ajaccio being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Ajaccio part of?
Angers vs Ajaccio is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 27) (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Ajaccio?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 60% chance of winning, Ajaccio a 14% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Angers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Ajaccio?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Angers and Ajaccio will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Angers vs Ajaccio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Angers's attack rating (1.12) and Ajaccio's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ajaccio's attack versus Angers's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Angers's last 26 games and Ajaccio's last 26 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.2%), 1-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Angers Win
60%
1.67
26%
3.90
14%
6.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Angers xG
Total xG
2.34
0.69
Ajaccio xG
1.67
60%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
6.98
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
50%
1.98
19%
5.25
Win to Nil
30%
3.31
3%
36.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 10.9 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 9.0 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Angers vs Ajaccio Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Ajaccio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Angers and Ajaccio expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Angers and 0.69 for Ajaccio, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Ajaccio?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Angers come into this having played 64 games, going 18W 10D 36L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Ajaccio sit at 1.00 PPG from 64 outings (17W 13D 34L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Angers on 1.00 PPG, Ajaccio on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Angers's home form reads 13W 5D 14L across their last 32 home games, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Ajaccio have taken 0.62 points per game from their last 32 away games (5W 5D 22L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Angers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Angers are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Ajaccio are on 0.77 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Blended
Ajaccio
Blended
Angers (Home) vs Ajaccio (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Angers
Blended
Ajaccio
Blended
❓ Angers vs Ajaccio Form FAQs
What form are Angers and Ajaccio in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 18W 10D 36L in their last 64 games (1.00 PPG), while Ajaccio have gone 17W 13D 34L in their last 64 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Ajaccio away?
Angers's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 1.38 PPG; Ajaccio away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2022. They cover more than one competition — Ligue 1, Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 4 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Angers's record when hosting Ajaccio specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Angers
1
Draws
2
Ajaccio
Recent Meetings
❓ Angers vs Ajaccio H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Ajaccio?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Angers have won 1, Ajaccio have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Angers and Ajaccio last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 March 2024: Angers 3-1 Ajaccio.
Who has won more matches between Angers and Ajaccio?
Ajaccio have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ajaccio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 56%, Ajaccio 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Angers) and 56% (Ajaccio). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 16% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Angers keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Ajaccio in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Ajaccio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Angers vs Ajaccio Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Angers and Ajaccio matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Angers's recent matches and 38% of Ajaccio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Angers and Ajaccio matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Angers's matches and 56% of Ajaccio's.
Do Angers and Ajaccio matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of Angers's recent matches and 72% of Ajaccio's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Angers cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Ajaccio.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Angers beat Ajaccio 3-1 at Stade Raymond Kopa, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.66 xG and Ajaccio 0.69 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Angers beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 1.12 / defence 1.02 against Ajaccio attack 0.62 / defence 1.27, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Angers 60% | Draw 26% | Ajaccio 14%, with Angers to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 55%, Ajaccio 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Ajaccio's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Angers 1.00 PPG, Ajaccio 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Angers win broke the near-deadlock. Angers (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm. Ajaccio (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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