Saint Etienne 2-1 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Saint Etienne vs Annecy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Saint Etienne welcome Annecy to Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Ligue 2 (matchday 26). Kick-off is Saturday 24 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Saint Etienne — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home, Saint Etienne have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Annecy have recorded 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Annecy away from home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Saint Etienne carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Saint Etienne, 1 for Annecy and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 28 Aug 2023, ended Saint Etienne 1–1 Annecy — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Saint Etienne in-play and half-time data (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Annecy in-play and half-time data (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 51% versus Annecy 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 48% | Annecy 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.50 xG and Annecy 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.151 / defence 0.948 | Annecy attack 1.044 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.228 / away 1.106. Data: built from Saint Etienne's last 63 games and Annecy's last 63.
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 47% | Draw 26% | Annecy 28%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 2.14 | Draw 3.88 | Annecy 3.62. Saint Etienne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Saint Etienne are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Saint Etienne 30% (last 10 home games) | Annecy 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 26 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 24 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 47% | Draw 26% | Annecy 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Saint Etienne 1.50 / Annecy 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 1.151 / def 0.948 | Annecy attack 1.044 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.228 / away 1.106 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Annecy xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Saint Etienne vs Annecy FAQs
What time does Saint Etienne vs Annecy kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Annecy kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Annecy?
Saint Etienne 2 - 1 Annecy.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Annecy part of?
Saint Etienne vs Annecy is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 26) (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 47% chance of winning, Annecy a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Saint Etienne and Annecy will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Saint Etienne vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Saint Etienne's attack at 1.15x the league average against Annecy's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Saint Etienne's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Saint Etienne's last 63 games and Annecy's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
47%
2.14
26%
3.88
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.60
1.09
Annecy xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
16%
6.41
6%
16.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.2 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Saint Etienne vs Annecy Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.09 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 63 outings, Saint Etienne have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 26W 16D 21L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Annecy's form line: 16W 20D 27L from 63 games, 1.08 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-L.
Put side by side, Saint Etienne are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Annecy.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Saint Etienne have posted 1.65 PPG from their last 31 home games (15W 6D 10L).
On the road, Annecy have gone 5W 11D 15L from their last 31 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.03 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
Annecy
Blended
Saint Etienne (Home) vs Annecy (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Saint Etienne
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Saint Etienne vs Annecy Form FAQs
What form are Saint Etienne and Annecy in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 26W 16D 21L in their last 63 games (1.49 PPG), while Annecy have gone 16W 20D 27L in their last 63 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Annecy away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.65 PPG; Annecy away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Annecy in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2022. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 21 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 Oct 2025, when Annecy won Annecy 4-0 Saint Etienne.
Saint Etienne's record when hosting Annecy specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Saint Etienne
1
Draws
2
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Saint Etienne vs Annecy H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Annecy?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Saint Etienne have won 3, Annecy have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Annecy last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 March 2026: Saint Etienne 4-0 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Annecy?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Saint Etienne see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 56% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 39%, Annecy 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Saint Etienne) and 58% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Saint Etienne have failed to score in 29% of games; Annecy in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Saint Etienne vs Annecy Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Saint Etienne and Annecy matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 48% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Saint Etienne and Annecy matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 58% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Annecy matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 55% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 64% of Annecy's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Saint Etienne edge out Annecy 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Annecy 2-1 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.50 xG and Annecy 1.09 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 1.15 / defence 0.95 against Annecy attack 1.04 / defence 1.06, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 47% | Draw 26% | Annecy 28%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 48%, Annecy 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Annecy's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Saint Etienne arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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