Rodez 2-2 Bordeaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rodez at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rodez vs Bordeaux fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 27 as Rodez welcome Bordeaux to Stade Paul Lignon. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 March 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Rodez have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rodez have posted 5W 4D 1L at Stade Paul Lignon — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bordeaux stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bordeaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Bordeaux have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Rodez) versus 1.70 (Bordeaux). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Rodez register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Bordeaux in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Rodez have won 0, Bordeaux 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Rodez in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Bordeaux in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 57% versus Bordeaux 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 46% | Bordeaux 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.65 xG and Bordeaux 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.134 / defence 1.002 | Bordeaux attack 0.980 / defence 1.232. League average goals — home 1.179 / away 1.091. Bordeaux bring a strong defensive rating of 1.232 — this is suppressing Rodez's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 Rodez games / 63 Bordeaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 51% | Draw 25% | Bordeaux 24%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Bordeaux 4.17. Rodez hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rodez are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rodez offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 70% | Bordeaux 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Bordeaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 51% | Draw 25% | Bordeaux 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Rodez 1.65 / Bordeaux 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 1.134 / def 1.002 | Bordeaux attack 0.980 / def 1.232 | league avg home 1.179 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Rodez (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Bordeaux xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Bordeaux kick off?
Rodez vs Bordeaux kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Bordeaux?
Rodez 2 - 2 Bordeaux.
Where is Rodez vs Bordeaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Bordeaux part of?
Rodez vs Bordeaux is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Bordeaux?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 51% chance of winning, Bordeaux a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Bordeaux?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Rodez and Bordeaux will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Bordeaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Bordeaux?
Record (2 meetings): Rodez 0W | Draws 1 | Bordeaux 1W.
What form are Rodez and Bordeaux in?
Rodez (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Bordeaux (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Rodez's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Bordeaux's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, Bordeaux's attack versus Rodez's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
51%
1.98
25%
3.99
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.72
1.07
Bordeaux xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
19%
5.19
Win to Nil
17%
5.78
5%
21.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.6 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Bordeaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Rodez and Bordeaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Rodez and 1.07 for Bordeaux, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Bordeaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 63 outings, Rodez have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 20W 21D 22L record — L-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bordeaux's form line: 30W 15D 18L from 63 games, 1.67 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W. The sample for Bordeaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rodez on 1.29 PPG, Bordeaux on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Rodez have posted 1.32 PPG from 31 outings (10W 11D 10L).
On the road, Bordeaux have gone 10W 8D 13L from 31 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bordeaux's season.
The Goals Picture
Rodez are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Bordeaux are on 1.27 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Bordeaux in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Blended
Bordeaux
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Bordeaux in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 20W 21D 22L in their last 63 games (1.29 PPG), while Bordeaux have gone 30W 15D 18L in their last 63 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Bordeaux away?
Rodez's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.32 PPG; Bordeaux away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Rodez or Bordeaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Bordeaux in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rodez and Bordeaux runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2022, when Bordeaux won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rodez's record when hosting Bordeaux specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Rodez
2
Draws
1
Bordeaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Bordeaux?
From 3 meetings on record, Rodez have won 0, Bordeaux have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Bordeaux last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Rodez 2-2 Bordeaux.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Bordeaux?
Bordeaux have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 61%, Bordeaux 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Rodez) and 45% (Bordeaux).
On the defensive side: Rodez have failed to score in 29% of games; Bordeaux in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Bordeaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Bordeaux?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Rodez's recent matches and 45% of Bordeaux's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rodez vs Bordeaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Rodez's recent games and 45% of Bordeaux's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Bordeaux tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Bordeaux in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rodez and Bordeaux share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 27, as Rodez and Bordeaux drew 2-2 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.65 xG and Bordeaux 1.07 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Bordeaux outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 1.13 / defence 1.00 against Bordeaux attack 0.98 / defence 1.23, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 51% | Draw 25% | Bordeaux 24%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 46%, Bordeaux 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Bordeaux's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.29 PPG, Bordeaux 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bordeaux (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.