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Poisson model favours Annecy (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Boulogne face Annecy.

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Analysis & Preview

A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Annecy travel to to take on Boulogne. The game is scheduled for Friday 6 November 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Boulogne — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Boulogne haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Boulogne's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Annecy have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Annecy haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Annecy away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Annecy — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Annecy, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Boulogne.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 1–2 with Annecy winning.

It is worth noting that Annecy have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Table Standings

In the Ligue 2 table, Annecy sit 7th on 52 points, 8 places and 16 points ahead of Boulogne in 15th.

Boulogne's home record this season stands at 4W 3D 10L. On the road, Annecy's record stands at 8W 1D 8L this term.

In-Play Profile

Boulogne in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Annecy in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Boulogne 50% versus Annecy 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boulogne 47% | Annecy 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Boulogne 1.34 xG and Annecy 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boulogne attack 0.951 / defence 1.180 | Annecy attack 1.107 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.258. Data: 34 Boulogne games / 34 Annecy games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Boulogne 30% | Draw 27% | Annecy 43%. Fair-value odds: Boulogne 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Annecy 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral: Boulogne 60% | Annecy 40%.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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