Dunkerque 1-1 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Dunkerque take on Quevilly.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Quevilly travel to Stade Marcel-Tribut to take on Dunkerque. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 July 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dunkerque 0.71 xG and Quevilly 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dunkerque attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Quevilly attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.722 / away 1.023. Data: 0 Dunkerque games / 0 Quevilly games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Dunkerque 21% | Draw 41% | Quevilly 38%. Fair-value odds: Dunkerque 4.76 | Draw 2.44 | Quevilly 2.63. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.71. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.71 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 21% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.71 combined xG gives a 24% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dunkerque vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Tribut • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jul 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dunkerque 21% | Draw 41% | Quevilly 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 36% | xG Dunkerque 0.71 / Quevilly 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Dunkerque attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Quevilly attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.722 / away 1.023 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Dunkerque xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Quevilly xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dunkerque vs Quevilly kick off?
Dunkerque vs Quevilly kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 24 July 2021 at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What was the final score in Dunkerque vs Quevilly?
Dunkerque 1 - 1 Quevilly.
Where is Dunkerque vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What competition is Dunkerque vs Quevilly part of?
Dunkerque vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dunkerque vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Dunkerque a 21% chance of winning, Quevilly a 38% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Dunkerque vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Dunkerque and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will Dunkerque vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Quevilly?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dunkerque and Quevilly in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Dunkerque's attack at 0.85x the league average against Quevilly's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Quevilly's attack versus Dunkerque's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (16.5%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
21%
4.70
41%
2.43
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.2%
Away win
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Dunkerque xG
Total xG
1.71
1.00
Quevilly xG
4.70
21%
Home win
2.43
41%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
8%
12.78
19%
5.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.2 | 18.2 | 9.1 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dunkerque vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.8%.
How many goals are Dunkerque and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Dunkerque and 1.00 for Quevilly, a combined total of 1.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Dunkerque vs Quevilly?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dunkerque
Pre-Season
Quevilly
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Dunkerque's record when hosting Quevilly specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Dunkerque
1
Draws
2
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Quevilly?
From 4 meetings on record, Dunkerque have won 1, Quevilly have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dunkerque and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2024, when Quevilly 1-2 Dunkerque.
Who has won more matches between Dunkerque and Quevilly?
Quevilly have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dunkerque home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dunkerque and Quevilly share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Regular Season - 1, as Dunkerque and Quevilly drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 0.71 xG and Quevilly 1.00 xG, a combined 1.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Quevilly attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 21% | Draw 41% | Quevilly 38%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.