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Poisson rates Guingamp at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Amiens vs Guingamp encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Guingamp travel to Stade de la Licorne to take on Amiens. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 November 2025, 13:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Amiens stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Amiens's home record at Stade de la Licorne: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Guingamp have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Form points away from home here. Guingamp's 1.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Amiens's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Amiens, 2 for Guingamp and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2025, ended 3–2 with Amiens winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Amiens trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).

Guingamp trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 50% versus Guingamp 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 54% | Guingamp 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.26 xG and Guingamp 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.855 / defence 1.115 | Guingamp attack 1.105 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 1.200. Data: 48 Amiens games / 48 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Amiens 32% | Draw 25% | Guingamp 42%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 3.12 | Draw 4.00 | Guingamp 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

Amiens dominate the H2H record, yet Guingamp are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.

On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Amiens 50% | Guingamp 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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