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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Guingamp and Annecy meet at Stade de Roudourou in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Friday 5 December 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Guingamp have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Guingamp have posted 4W 4D 2L at Stade de Roudourou — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Annecy's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Annecy's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Guingamp, 2 for Annecy and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.2 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Jan 2025, ended 4–1 with Guingamp winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Guingamp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

Annecy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 55% versus Annecy 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 63% | Annecy 37%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.41 xG and Annecy 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.080 / defence 1.132 | Annecy attack 0.857 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.208. Data: 49 Guingamp games / 49 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Guingamp 42% | Draw 26% | Annecy 31%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Annecy 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guingamp if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Guingamp 60% | Annecy 40%.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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