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Poisson rates Annecy at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Annecy vs Bastia encounter.

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Match Analysis

Annecy host Bastia at Parc des Sports in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 21 November 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Annecy — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Annecy at Parc des Sports this season: 3W 6D 1L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Bastia have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bastia away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

On current form, Annecy have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Annecy, 3 for Bastia and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Annecy in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

Bastia in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 45% versus Bastia 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Annecy 38% | Bastia 34%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.34 xG and Bastia 0.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.080 / defence 0.874 | Bastia attack 0.502 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.214. Data: 48 Annecy games / 47 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Annecy 57% | Draw 28% | Bastia 15%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 1.75 | Draw 3.57 | Bastia 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Annecy (57%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Bastia's lower xG of 0.53 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.

Analysis Verdict

Bastia lead the H2H ledger, but Annecy carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 1.87 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 30%. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 60% | Bastia 20% BTTS from recent games.

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