🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Saint Etienne vs Nancy encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 15 as Saint Etienne welcome Nancy to Stade Geoffroy-Guichard. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 November 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Saint Etienne — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Saint Etienne's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Nancy stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Nancy, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Nancy's away record: 2W 2D 3L from 7 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.14 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Saint Etienne carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

In-Play Profile

Saint Etienne in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.

Nancy in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 57% versus Nancy 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 71% | Nancy 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 2.41 xG and Nancy 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.465 / defence 1.156 | Nancy attack 0.888 / defence 1.275. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.215. Saint Etienne carry an above-average attack strength of 1.465 — their λ of 2.41 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Nancy bring a strong defensive rating of 1.275 — this is suppressing Saint Etienne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Saint Etienne games / 14 Nancy games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 63% | Draw 18% | Nancy 18%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 1.59 | Draw 5.56 | Nancy 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Saint Etienne (63%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.66. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.66 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.41 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Saint Etienne at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.66 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Saint Etienne 80% | Nancy 57% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights