Saint Etienne 2-1 Nancy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Saint Etienne vs Nancy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 15 as Saint Etienne welcome Nancy to Stade Geoffroy-Guichard. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 November 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Saint Etienne — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Saint Etienne's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nancy stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Nancy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nancy's away record: 2W 2D 3L from 7 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.14 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Saint Etienne carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Saint Etienne in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
Nancy in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 57% versus Nancy 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 71% | Nancy 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 2.41 xG and Nancy 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.465 / defence 1.156 | Nancy attack 0.888 / defence 1.275. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.215. Saint Etienne carry an above-average attack strength of 1.465 — their λ of 2.41 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Nancy bring a strong defensive rating of 1.275 — this is suppressing Saint Etienne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Saint Etienne games / 14 Nancy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 63% | Draw 18% | Nancy 18%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 1.59 | Draw 5.56 | Nancy 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Saint Etienne (63%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.66. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.66 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.41 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Saint Etienne at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.66 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Saint Etienne 80% | Nancy 57% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Nancy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 63% | Draw 18% | Nancy 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 65% | xG Saint Etienne 2.41 / Nancy 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 1.465 / def 1.156 | Nancy attack 0.888 / def 1.275 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.41
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Nancy xG
65%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Nancy kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Nancy kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Nancy?
Saint Etienne 2 - 1 Nancy.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Nancy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Nancy part of?
Saint Etienne vs Nancy is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Nancy?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 63% chance of winning, Nancy a 18% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Nancy?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Saint Etienne and Nancy will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Nancy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Nancy?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Saint Etienne and Nancy in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Nancy (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Saint Etienne's attack rating (1.47) and Nancy's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 2.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nancy's attack versus Saint Etienne's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.7%), 3-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
63%
1.58
18%
5.41
18%
5.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
2 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.41
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
3.66
1.25
Nancy xG
1.58
63%
Home win
5.41
18%
Draw
5.45
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
9%
11.18
Win to Nil
18%
5.51
2%
60.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Nancy?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Nancy expected to score?
The model projects 2.41 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.25 for Nancy, a combined total of 3.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Nancy?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Saint Etienne's recent record stands at 8W 2D 4L from 14 games, a 1.86 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nancy, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 7L across 14 games — 1.07 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Nancy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Saint Etienne by 0.79 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nancy heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Saint Etienne have managed 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nancy's away record stands at 2W 1D 3L across 6 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Saint Etienne are averaging 2.21 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Nancy are on 0.93 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
Nancy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Nancy in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 8W 2D 4L in their last 14 games (1.86 PPG), while Nancy have gone 4W 3D 7L in their last 14 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Nancy away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.67 PPG; Nancy away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Nancy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Nancy in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Saint Etienne
1
Draws
0
Nancy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Nancy?
From 2 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 1, Nancy have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Nancy last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Nancy 1-1 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Nancy?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Nancy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Saint Etienne at 67%, Nancy at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Saint Etienne and 83% for Nancy. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 83% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Nancy in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Nancy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Nancy?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Saint Etienne's games and 67% of Nancy's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Saint Etienne vs Nancy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Saint Etienne's matches and 83% of Nancy's.
Do Saint Etienne and Nancy tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Nancy in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Saint Etienne edge out Nancy 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Nancy 2-1 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 2.41 xG and Nancy 1.25 xG, a combined 3.66. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 1.47 / defence 1.16 against Nancy attack 0.89 / defence 1.27, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 63% | Draw 18% | Nancy 18%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 71%, Nancy 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Nancy's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Saint Etienne arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.