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Poisson rates Guingamp at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs PAU encounter.

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Match Analysis

Guingamp host PAU at Stade de Roudourou in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 November 2025 at 13:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Guingamp at Stade de Roudourou this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, PAU have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.

PAU's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Guingamp 1.80 PPG, PAU 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Guingamp register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, PAU in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Guingamp have won 5, PAU 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2025, ended 3–1 with Guingamp winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Guingamp in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

PAU in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 53% versus PAU 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 62% | PAU 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.91 xG and PAU 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.071 / defence 1.110 | PAU attack 1.006 / defence 1.368. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.199. PAU bring a strong defensive rating of 1.368 — this is suppressing Guingamp's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Guingamp games / 47 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Guingamp 51% | Draw 22% | PAU 27%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 1.96 | Draw 4.55 | PAU 3.70. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 3.25 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 60% | PAU 70% BTTS from recent games.

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