Caen 0-1 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Caen at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Caen vs Paris FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Paris FC make the trip to Stade Michel d'Ornano to face Caen in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 March 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Caen (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Caen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Caen's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stade Michel d'Ornano this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Michel d'Ornano. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Paris FC have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 7D 1L. Last five: D D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Paris FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Caen. A 0.70 PPG lead over Paris FC (2.00 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Caen, 2 for Paris FC and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2023, ended 2–0 with Caen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Caen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Paris FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Caen 55% versus Paris FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Caen 51% | Paris FC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Caen 1.19 xG and Paris FC 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Caen attack 1.081 / defence 0.733 | Paris FC attack 0.935 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.076. Caen's defence rating of 0.733 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 65 Caen games / 65 Paris FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Caen 46% | Draw 32% | Paris FC 22%. Fair-value odds: Caen 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | Paris FC 4.55. Caen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Caen are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Caen if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.93 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Caen 30% | Paris FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Caen vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade Michel d'Ornano • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Mar 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Caen 46% | Draw 32% | Paris FC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG Caen 1.19 / Paris FC 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Caen attack 1.081 / def 0.733 | Paris FC attack 0.935 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Caen (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Caen xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Paris FC xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Caen vs Paris FC kick off?
Caen vs Paris FC kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What was the final score in Caen vs Paris FC?
Caen 0 - 1 Paris FC.
Where is Caen vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What competition is Caen vs Paris FC part of?
Caen vs Paris FC is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Caen vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Caen a 46% chance of winning, Paris FC a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Caen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Caen vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Caen and Paris FC will score (BTTS).
Will Caen vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Paris FC?
Record (5 meetings): Caen 2W | Draws 1 | Paris FC 2W.
What form are Caen and Paris FC in?
Caen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Paris FC (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Caen's attack rating (1.08) and Paris FC's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Paris FC's attack (0.94x) against Caen's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.7%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Caen Win
46%
2.17
32%
3.15
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Caen xG
Total xG
1.93
0.74
Paris FC xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.71
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
22%
4.55
7%
14.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 10.8 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 12.8 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Caen vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Caen and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Caen and 0.74 for Paris FC, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Caen vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 65 outings, Caen have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 28W 17D 20L record — L-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Caen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Paris FC's form line: 24W 19D 22L from 65 games, 1.40 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-D. The sample for Paris FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Caen against 1.40 for Paris FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Caen have posted 1.97 PPG from 32 outings (18W 9D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.55 PPG overall — Caen are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Paris FC have gone 11W 12D 9L from 32 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Caen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Caen are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.17 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Caen
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Caen and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Caen have gone 28W 17D 20L in their last 65 games (1.55 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 24W 19D 22L in their last 65 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Caen at home or Paris FC away?
Caen's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Caen at home: 1.97 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Caen or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Caen have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Paris FC in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Paris FC have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Caen have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Paris FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Caen
1
Draws
5
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Paris FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Caen have won 2, Paris FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Caen and Paris FC last play each other?
They last met on 31 March 2025, when Paris FC 4-2 Caen.
Who has won more matches between Caen and Paris FC?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Caen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Paris FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Caen 50%, Paris FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Caen) and 34% (Paris FC).
On the defensive side: Caen keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Paris FC in 38%; Paris FC in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Caen home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Caen play Paris FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Caen's recent matches and 50% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Caen vs Paris FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Caen's recent games and 34% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Caen and Paris FC tend to score early?
Caen have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Paris FC in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Paris FC defy the odds to beat Caen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat Caen 0-1 at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Caen 1.19 xG and Paris FC 0.74 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Caen fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Caen attack 1.08 / defence 0.73 against Paris FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.94, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Caen 46% | Draw 32% | Paris FC 22%, with Caen to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Paris FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Caen 51%, Paris FC 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Caen's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Paris FC's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Caen 1.55 PPG, Paris FC 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Paris FC win broke the near-deadlock. Caen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward. Paris FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.