Le Havre 0-0 Monaco – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Monaco at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Le Havre vs Monaco encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Océane plays host to Le Havre versus Monaco in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Le Havre (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Le Havre have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stade Océane — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Océane. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Monaco have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Monaco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Monaco have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Monaco are 0.70 PPG clear of Le Havre in recent Ligue 1 fixtures (2.00 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Le Havre — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Monaco — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 39% versus Monaco 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 33% | Monaco 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.37 xG and Monaco 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.825 / defence 1.075 | Monaco attack 1.369 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.049. Monaco bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Le Havre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Monaco have an above-average attack strength of 1.369 — the away xG of 1.54 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 11 Le Havre games / 49 Monaco games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 31% | Draw 30% | Monaco 39%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Monaco 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Monaco are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Monaco if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral: Le Havre 20% | Monaco 70%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Monaco | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 31% | Draw 30% | Monaco 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG Le Havre 1.37 / Monaco 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.825 / def 1.075 | Monaco attack 1.369 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.049 • Poisson stance: Monaco (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Monaco xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Monaco kick off?
Le Havre vs Monaco kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Monaco?
Le Havre 0 - 0 Monaco.
Where is Le Havre vs Monaco being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Monaco part of?
Le Havre vs Monaco is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Monaco?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 31% chance of winning, Monaco a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Monaco?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Le Havre and Monaco will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Monaco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Monaco?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Le Havre and Monaco in?
Le Havre (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Monaco (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Le Havre's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Monaco's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. Flip it around — Monaco's attack (1.37x) against Le Havre's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 11/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
31%
3.18
30%
3.37
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.92
1.54
Monaco xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
21%
4.68
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
7%
14.89
10%
10.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.5 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Monaco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Monaco expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.54 for Monaco, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Monaco?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 49 outings, Le Havre have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 23W 20D 6L record — L-L-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Monaco's form line: 26W 10D 13L from 49 games, 1.80 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Monaco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.82 PPG for Le Havre against 1.80 for Monaco. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Le Havre have posted 1.96 PPG from 24 outings (13W 8D 3L).
On the road, Monaco have gone 12W 7D 5L from 24 away games — 1.79 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Le Havre are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 0.65 conceded per game recently; Monaco are on 1.94 scored and 1.47 conceded. Monaco's attacking output running into Le Havre's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Monaco in 61%.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Monaco
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Monaco in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 23W 20D 6L in their last 49 games (1.82 PPG), while Monaco have gone 26W 10D 13L in their last 49 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Monaco away?
Le Havre's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.96 PPG; Monaco away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Monaco been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their recent games, Monaco in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Le Havre have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Monaco — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Le Havre
4
Draws
2
Monaco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Monaco?
From 6 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 0, Monaco have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Monaco last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Le Havre 0-0 Monaco.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Monaco?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 33%, Monaco 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Le Havre) and 62% (Monaco).
On the defensive side: Le Havre keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Le Havre have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Monaco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Monaco?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Le Havre's recent matches and 62% of Monaco's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Monaco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Le Havre's recent games and 62% of Monaco's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Monaco tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Monaco in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Le Havre's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre and Monaco finished level at 0-0 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.37 xG and Monaco 1.54 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Le Havre fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Monaco landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.82 / defence 1.07 against Monaco attack 1.37 / defence 1.20, drawn from 11/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 31% | Draw 30% | Monaco 39%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 33%, Monaco 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Monaco's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Le Havre 1.82 PPG, Monaco 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Monaco (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.