Estac Troyes 1-0 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Estac Troyes take on Reims.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Estac Troyes host Reims at Stade de l'Aube in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Estac Troyes — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Estac Troyes have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stade de l'Aube — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Reims stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Reims have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Estac Troyes) versus 1.30 (Reims). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Estac Troyes, 0 for Reims and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with Estac Troyes winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Estac Troyes in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Reims in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 55% versus Reims 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Estac Troyes 38% | Reims 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 0.88 xG and Reims 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.762 / defence 1.009 | Reims attack 0.798 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.058 / away 1.083. Estac Troyes's attack strength of 0.762 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 29 Estac Troyes games / 29 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 33% | Draw 34% | Reims 33%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 3.03 | Draw 2.94 | Reims 3.03. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Reims's lower xG of 0.87 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.75 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Estac Troyes 40% | Reims 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 33% | Draw 34% | Reims 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG Estac Troyes 0.88 / Reims 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 0.762 / def 1.009 | Reims attack 0.798 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.058 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Reims xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Reims kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Reims kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 3 April 2022 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Reims?
Estac Troyes 1 - 0 Reims.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Reims part of?
Estac Troyes vs Reims is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 33% chance of winning, Reims a 33% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Estac Troyes and Reims will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Reims?
Record (1 meetings): Estac Troyes 1W | Draws 0 | Reims 0W.
What form are Estac Troyes and Reims in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Reims (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Estac Troyes's attack rating (0.76) and Reims's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 0.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Reims's attack versus Estac Troyes's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.02
34%
2.93
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
1.75
0.87
Reims xG
3.02
33%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.91
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
42%
2.41
Win to Nil
14%
7.22
14%
7.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.4 | 15.1 | 6.6 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.3 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.1%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 0.87 for Reims, a combined total of 1.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Estac Troyes's recent record stands at 7W 8D 14L from 29 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-D in the last five.
Reims, meanwhile, have gone 8W 12D 9L across 29 games — 1.24 PPG, with D-W-D-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Estac Troyes on 1.00 PPG, Reims on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Estac Troyes have managed 3W 6D 5L from 14 games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Reims's away record stands at 4W 5D 5L across 14 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Estac Troyes are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.10 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Current Season
Reims
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Reims in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 7W 8D 14L in their last 29 games (1.00 PPG), while Reims have gone 8W 12D 9L in their last 29 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Reims away?
Reims's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 1.07 PPG; Reims away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Estac Troyes or Reims been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Reims in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Feb 2023, when Reims won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Estac Troyes's record when hosting Reims specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Estac Troyes
2
Draws
1
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Reims?
From 6 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 3, Reims have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Reims last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Estac Troyes 2-1 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Reims?
Estac Troyes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 57%, Reims 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Estac Troyes and 36% for Reims.
On the defensive side: Reims in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Reims?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Estac Troyes's games and 57% of Reims's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estac Troyes vs Reims usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 36% of Reims's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Reims tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Reims in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Estac Troyes edge out Reims 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estac Troyes beat Reims 1-0 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 0.88 xG and Reims 0.87 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Reims landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 0.76 / defence 1.01 against Reims attack 0.80 / defence 1.09, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 33% | Draw 34% | Reims 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The actual Estac Troyes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 53% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 38%, Reims 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Reims's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estac Troyes 1.00 PPG, Reims 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estac Troyes win broke the near-deadlock. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.