Rennes 3-1 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rennes at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rennes vs Clermont Foot encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 22 as Rennes welcome Clermont Foot to Roazhon Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 February 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rennes stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rennes's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Roazhon Park this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Clermont Foot — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Clermont Foot have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Rennes carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Rennes register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Clermont Foot in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Rennes have won 3, Clermont Foot 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2023, ended 3–1 with Rennes winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Rennes trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games).
Clermont Foot trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rennes 58% versus Clermont Foot 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rennes 59% | Clermont Foot 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 2.02 xG and Clermont Foot 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 1.195 / defence 1.024 | Clermont Foot attack 0.934 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.114. Clermont Foot bring a strong defensive rating of 1.238 — this is suppressing Rennes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Rennes games / 59 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rennes 58% | Draw 25% | Clermont Foot 18%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Clermont Foot 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Rennes (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rennes as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.09 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rennes 80% | Clermont Foot 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rennes vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Roazhon Park • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rennes 58% | Draw 25% | Clermont Foot 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 59% | xG Rennes 2.02 / Clermont Foot 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Rennes attack 1.195 / def 1.024 | Clermont Foot attack 0.934 / def 1.238 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Rennes (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Rennes xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Clermont Foot xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rennes vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Rennes vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 18 February 2024 at Roazhon Park.
What was the final score in Rennes vs Clermont Foot?
Rennes 3 - 1 Clermont Foot.
Where is Rennes vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Roazhon Park.
What competition is Rennes vs Clermont Foot part of?
Rennes vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rennes vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Rennes a 58% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rennes vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Rennes and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Rennes vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Clermont Foot?
Record (5 meetings): Rennes 3W | Draws 0 | Clermont Foot 2W.
What form are Rennes and Clermont Foot in?
Rennes (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Clermont Foot (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Rennes's attack rating (1.20) and Clermont Foot's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 2.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Clermont Foot's attack versus Rennes's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
58%
1.73
25%
4.05
18%
5.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Rennes xG
Total xG
3.09
1.06
Clermont Foot xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
5.68
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
13%
7.55
Win to Nil
20%
5.03
2%
42.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rennes vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Rennes and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Rennes and 1.06 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Rennes vs Clermont Foot?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rennes's recent record stands at 29W 12D 18L from 59 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Rennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Clermont Foot, meanwhile, have gone 20W 15D 24L across 59 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rennes by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Clermont Foot heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rennes have managed 20W 3D 6L from 29 games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.68 PPG overall — Rennes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Clermont Foot's away record stands at 10W 8D 11L across 29 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rennes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rennes are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.02 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rennes
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rennes and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Rennes have gone 29W 12D 18L in their last 59 games (1.68 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 20W 15D 24L in their last 59 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rennes at home or Clermont Foot away?
Rennes's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rennes at home: 2.17 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Rennes or Clermont Foot been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rennes have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Clermont Foot in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rennes and Clermont Foot runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Rennes have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Sep 2021, when Rennes won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rennes's record when hosting Clermont Foot specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Rennes
0
Draws
2
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Clermont Foot?
From 6 meetings on record, Rennes have won 4, Clermont Foot have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rennes and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2024, when Rennes 3-1 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Rennes and Clermont Foot?
Rennes have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rennes 55%, Clermont Foot 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Rennes and 55% for Clermont Foot. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rennes keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Clermont Foot in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rennes home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rennes play Clermont Foot?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Rennes's games and 62% of Clermont Foot's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rennes vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Rennes's matches and 55% of Clermont Foot's.
Do Rennes and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Rennes have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rennes cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Clermont Foot.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rennes beat Clermont Foot 3-1 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 2.02 xG and Clermont Foot 1.06 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Rennes beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 1.20 / defence 1.02 against Clermont Foot attack 0.93 / defence 1.24, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rennes 58% | Draw 25% | Clermont Foot 18%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 59%, Clermont Foot 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rennes's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rennes arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.