Lille 3-0 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lille at 67% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lille vs Le Havre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lille and Le Havre meet at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Ligue 1 (matchday 22). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 February 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Lille (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home, Lille have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Lille are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Le Havre have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Le Havre's form when playing away from home: 1W 6D 3L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Lille's 1.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Le Havre's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Lille edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Oct 2023, ended Lille 2–0 Le Havre — a Lille win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Lille — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Le Havre — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lille 56% versus Le Havre 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lille 46% | Le Havre 34%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Lille surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Le Havre have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Le Havre surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Lille recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 47% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 1.94 xG and Le Havre 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 1.266 / defence 0.658 | Le Havre attack 0.879 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 1.097. Lille carry an above-average attack rating of 1.266 — their 1.94 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Lille have a tight defence (rating 0.658), which is pulling Le Havre's projected output down. Data: built from Lille's last 59 games and Le Havre's last 21.
Result probabilities: Lille 67% | Draw 24% | Le Havre 10%. Fair-value odds: Lille 1.50 | Draw 4.22 | Le Havre 10.43. The model has a clear lean to Lille (67%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lille are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lille's last 10 home games and Le Havre's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lille 30% (last 10 home games) | Le Havre 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 22 | Venue: Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 67% | Draw 24% | Le Havre 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Lille 1.94 / Le Havre 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 1.266 / def 0.658 | Le Havre attack 0.879 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.373 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Lille (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Lille xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Le Havre xG
42%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lille vs Le Havre FAQs
What time does Lille vs Le Havre kick off?
Lille vs Le Havre kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What was the final score in Lille vs Le Havre?
Lille 3 - 0 Le Havre.
Where is Lille vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Le Havre part of?
Lille vs Le Havre is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 22) (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 67% chance of winning, Le Havre a 10% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Lille and Le Havre will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Lille vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Lille's attack rating (1.27) and Le Havre's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Le Havre's attack (0.88x) against Lille's defence (0.66x) — and the away total comes out at 0.64.
These ratings are built from Lille's last 59 games and Le Havre's last 21 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.5%), 1-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
67%
1.50
24%
4.22
10%
10.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.3%
Home win
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Lille xG
Total xG
2.58
0.64
Le Havre xG
1.50
67%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
10.43
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
14%
6.97
Win to Nil
35%
2.83
1%
72.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 9.4 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.3 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lille vs Le Havre Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Lille and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Lille and 0.64 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Le Havre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lille's recent record stands at 28W 18D 13L from 59 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-L in the last five.
Le Havre, meanwhile, have gone 25W 24D 10L across 59 games — 1.68 PPG, with L-W-D-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.73 PPG for Lille against 1.68 for Le Havre. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Lille have managed 20W 6D 3L from their last 29 home games — 2.28 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.73 PPG overall — Lille are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Le Havre's away record stands at 10W 15D 4L across their last 29 away games, a 1.55 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lille are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.17 scored and 0.75 conceded.
Defensively: Lille have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Le Havre in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
Lille (Home) vs Le Havre (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lille
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
❓ Lille vs Le Havre Form FAQs
What form are Lille and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 28W 18D 13L in their last 59 games (1.73 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 25W 24D 10L in their last 59 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Le Havre away?
Lille's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 2.28 PPG; Le Havre away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Lille or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lille have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Le Havre in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lille won Lille 3-0 Le Havre on 17 Feb 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lille have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Le Havre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Lille
1
Draws
1
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Lille vs Le Havre H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Le Havre?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Lille have won 5, Le Havre have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Lille and Le Havre last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Lille 1-0 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Le Havre?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lille 59%, Le Havre 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Lille) and 34% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Lille keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Le Havre in 41%; Le Havre in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lille vs Le Havre Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lille and Le Havre matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Lille's recent matches and 48% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lille and Le Havre matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Lille's recent games and 34% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lille and Le Havre matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Lille's recent matches and 52% of Le Havre's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lille run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Le Havre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Le Havre 3-0 at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 1.94 xG and Le Havre 0.64 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Lille beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 1.27 / defence 0.66 against Le Havre attack 0.88 / defence 1.12, drawn from 59/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lille 67% | Draw 24% | Le Havre 10%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 46%, Le Havre 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lille's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Le Havre's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lille 1.73 PPG, Le Havre 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lille win broke the near-deadlock. Lille (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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