Monaco 1-2 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Monaco at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Monaco vs Toulouse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Monaco host Toulouse at Stade Louis-II in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 February 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Monaco — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Monaco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Louis-II, Monaco have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Toulouse have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Toulouse have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
On current form, Monaco have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Monaco, 1 for Toulouse and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2023, ended 2–1 with Monaco winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Monaco in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Toulouse in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monaco 63% versus Toulouse 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monaco 64% | Toulouse 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monaco 1.44 xG and Toulouse 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monaco attack 0.989 / defence 1.062 | Toulouse attack 0.989 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.114. Data: 59 Monaco games / 59 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monaco 41% | Draw 31% | Toulouse 28%. Fair-value odds: Monaco 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Toulouse 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Monaco as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monaco offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Monaco 40% | Toulouse 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monaco vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade Louis-II • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monaco 41% | Draw 31% | Toulouse 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG Monaco 1.44 / Toulouse 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Monaco attack 0.989 / def 1.062 | Toulouse attack 0.989 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Monaco (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Monaco xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Toulouse xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monaco vs Toulouse kick off?
Monaco vs Toulouse kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 18 February 2024 at Stade Louis-II.
What was the final score in Monaco vs Toulouse?
Monaco 1 - 2 Toulouse.
Where is Monaco vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade Louis-II.
What competition is Monaco vs Toulouse part of?
Monaco vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Monaco vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Monaco a 41% chance of winning, Toulouse a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monaco vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Monaco and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Monaco vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Toulouse?
Record (3 meetings): Monaco 2W | Draws 0 | Toulouse 1W.
What form are Monaco and Toulouse in?
Monaco (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Toulouse (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Monaco's attack at 0.99x the league average against Toulouse's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Toulouse's attack versus Monaco's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.0%), 0-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
41%
2.44
31%
3.28
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Monaco xG
Total xG
2.61
1.17
Toulouse xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
13%
7.85
7%
14.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.4 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monaco vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Monaco and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Monaco and 1.17 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Monaco vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Monaco's recent record stands at 30W 13D 16L from 59 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Monaco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Toulouse, meanwhile, have gone 17W 17D 25L across 59 games — 1.15 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Monaco by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Toulouse heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Monaco have managed 15W 4D 10L from 29 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Toulouse's away record stands at 9W 6D 14L across 29 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monaco come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Monaco are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.20 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Monaco have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monaco
Blended
Toulouse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monaco and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Monaco have gone 30W 13D 16L in their last 59 games (1.75 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 17W 17D 25L in their last 59 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monaco at home or Toulouse away?
Monaco's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monaco at home: 1.69 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Monaco and Toulouse runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Monaco's record when hosting Toulouse specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Monaco
2
Draws
2
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Toulouse?
From 8 meetings on record, Monaco have won 4, Toulouse have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Monaco and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Toulouse 2-2 Monaco.
Who has won more matches between Monaco and Toulouse?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monaco 59%, Toulouse 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Monaco and 59% for Toulouse. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Toulouse in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monaco home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monaco play Toulouse?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Monaco's games and 52% of Toulouse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Monaco vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Monaco's matches and 59% of Toulouse's.
Do Monaco and Toulouse tend to score early?
Monaco have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Toulouse defy the odds to beat Monaco 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Monaco 1-2 at Stade Louis-II, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monaco 1.44 xG and Toulouse 1.17 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Toulouse outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monaco attack 0.99 / defence 1.06 against Toulouse attack 0.99 / defence 1.07, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monaco 41% | Draw 31% | Toulouse 28%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Toulouse win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monaco 64%, Toulouse 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monaco's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Toulouse's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Monaco arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with Toulouse winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Monaco (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward. Toulouse (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.