Nice 0-0 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nice at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nice vs Clermont Foot encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Clermont Foot travel to Allianz Riviera to take on Nice. The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 February 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nice stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nice's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Allianz Riviera this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Riviera. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Nice are significantly better at Allianz Riviera than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Clermont Foot have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Clermont Foot's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Nice have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Nice have won 2, Clermont Foot 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2023, ended 1–0 with Nice winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Nice in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Clermont Foot in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nice 43% versus Clermont Foot 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nice 32% | Clermont Foot 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 1.80 xG and Clermont Foot 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 1.019 / defence 0.803 | Clermont Foot attack 0.927 / defence 1.301. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.136. Clermont Foot bring a strong defensive rating of 1.301 — this is suppressing Nice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Nice games / 60 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nice 58% | Draw 26% | Clermont Foot 16%. Fair-value odds: Nice 1.72 | Draw 3.85 | Clermont Foot 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Nice (58%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nice as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Nice 20% | Clermont Foot 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nice vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Allianz Riviera • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nice 58% | Draw 26% | Clermont Foot 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 49% | xG Nice 1.80 / Clermont Foot 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Nice attack 1.019 / def 0.803 | Clermont Foot attack 0.927 / def 1.301 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Nice (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Nice xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Clermont Foot xG
49%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nice vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Nice vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 25 February 2024 at Allianz Riviera.
What was the final score in Nice vs Clermont Foot?
Nice 0 - 0 Clermont Foot.
Where is Nice vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Riviera.
What competition is Nice vs Clermont Foot part of?
Nice vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nice vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Nice a 58% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 16% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Nice and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Nice vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Clermont Foot?
Record (5 meetings): Nice 2W | Draws 0 | Clermont Foot 3W.
What form are Nice and Clermont Foot in?
Nice (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Clermont Foot (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Nice's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Clermont Foot's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. The same calculation in reverse, Clermont Foot's attack versus Nice's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
58%
1.71
26%
3.87
16%
6.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Nice xG
Total xG
2.64
0.85
Clermont Foot xG
1.71
58%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
6.34
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
17%
6.03
Win to Nil
25%
3.99
3%
38.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 10.8 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nice vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Nice and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Nice and 0.85 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Nice vs Clermont Foot?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nice's recent record stands at 26W 19D 15L from 60 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Clermont Foot, meanwhile, have gone 20W 15D 25L across 60 games — 1.25 PPG, with W-D-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nice on 1.62 PPG, Clermont Foot on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Nice have managed 14W 10D 6L from 30 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Clermont Foot's away record stands at 10W 8D 12L across 30 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nice are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.02 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Nice have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nice
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nice and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Nice have gone 26W 19D 15L in their last 60 games (1.62 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 20W 15D 25L in their last 60 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nice at home or Clermont Foot away?
Nice's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nice at home: 1.73 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Nice or Clermont Foot been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nice have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Clermont Foot in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Nice's record when hosting Clermont Foot specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Nice
1
Draws
3
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Clermont Foot?
From 6 meetings on record, Nice have won 2, Clermont Foot have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nice and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2024, when Nice 0-0 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Nice and Clermont Foot?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nice see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nice 40%, Clermont Foot 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Nice) and 57% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Nice keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Nice have failed to score in 30% of games; Clermont Foot in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nice home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nice play Clermont Foot?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Nice's recent matches and 63% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nice vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Nice's recent games and 57% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nice and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Nice have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Nice's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nice and Clermont Foot finished level at 0-0 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.80 xG and Clermont Foot 0.85 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nice fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Clermont Foot landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 1.02 / defence 0.80 against Clermont Foot attack 0.93 / defence 1.30, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nice 58% | Draw 26% | Clermont Foot 16%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 58%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 32%, Clermont Foot 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nice's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nice 1.62 PPG, Clermont Foot 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.