Reims 2-1 Metz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Reims at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reims vs Metz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Metz travel to Stade Auguste-Delaune to take on Reims in Ligue 1 (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 March 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Reims stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Reims have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Metz have recorded 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Metz's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Reims carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.20 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Reims have won 0, Metz 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Sep 2023, ended Reims 2–2 Metz — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Reims in-play and half-time data (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Metz in-play and half-time data (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 52% versus Metz 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 49% | Metz 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.29 xG and Metz 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.858 / defence 1.010 | Metz attack 0.795 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.228. Metz's attack rating of 0.795 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.99. Data: built from Reims's last 63 games and Metz's last 25.
Result probabilities: Reims 43% | Draw 29% | Metz 28%. Fair-value odds: Reims 2.33 | Draw 3.43 | Metz 3.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reims at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reims offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Reims 40% (last 10 home games) | Metz 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Metz | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 26 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Sunday 17 March 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 43% | Draw 29% | Metz 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Reims 1.29 / Metz 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.858 / def 1.010 | Metz attack 0.795 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.294 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Reims (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Reims xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Metz xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Reims vs Metz FAQs
What time does Reims vs Metz kick off?
Reims vs Metz kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 17 March 2024 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What was the final score in Reims vs Metz?
Reims 2 - 1 Metz.
Where is Reims vs Metz being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Metz part of?
Reims vs Metz is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 26) (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Metz?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 43% chance of winning, Metz a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Metz?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Reims and Metz will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Reims vs Metz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Reims's attack rating (0.86) and Metz's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Metz's attack versus Reims's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Reims's last 63 games and Metz's last 25 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
43%
2.33
29%
3.43
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Reims xG
Total xG
2.28
0.99
Metz xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
16%
6.25
8%
13.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 10.1 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.1 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Reims vs Metz Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Metz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Reims and Metz expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Reims and 0.99 for Metz, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Metz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Reims come into this having played 63 games, going 22W 20D 21L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-D.
On the other side, Metz sit at 1.51 PPG from 63 outings (26W 17D 20L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reims on 1.37 PPG, Metz on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Reims's home form reads 13W 8D 10L across their last 31 home games, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Metz have taken 1.58 points per game from their last 31 away games (14W 7D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Reims are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Metz are on 1.32 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Blended
Metz
Blended
Reims (Home) vs Metz (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Reims
Blended
Metz
Blended
❓ Reims vs Metz Form FAQs
What form are Reims and Metz in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 22W 20D 21L in their last 63 games (1.37 PPG), while Metz have gone 26W 17D 20L in their last 63 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Metz away?
Metz's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.52 PPG; Metz away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Reims or Metz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Metz in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent in our data was on 29 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Reims's record when hosting Metz specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Reims
3
Draws
2
Metz
Recent Meetings
❓ Reims vs Metz H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Metz?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Reims have won 1, Metz have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Metz last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 May 2025: Reims 1-3 Metz.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Metz?
Metz have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Metz see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 48%, Metz 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Reims) and 45% (Metz).
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Metz in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Metz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Reims vs Metz Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Reims and Metz matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Reims's recent matches and 52% of Metz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Reims and Metz matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Reims's recent games and 45% of Metz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Metz matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Reims's recent matches and 55% of Metz's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Reims edge out Metz 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims beat Metz 2-1 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.29 xG and Metz 0.99 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.86 / defence 1.01 against Metz attack 0.80 / defence 1.16, drawn from 63/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 43% | Draw 29% | Metz 28%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 49%, Metz 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Metz's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 1.37 PPG, Metz 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reims win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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