Lyon 1-1 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reims at 41%, yet in-form Lyon provide a compelling counter-argument — this Lyon vs Reims fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 27 as Lyon welcome Reims to Groupama Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 March 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Lyon have gone 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Lyon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lyon at Groupama Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Groupama Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Reims stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reims's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Lyon are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 1 data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Lyon, 2 for Reims and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2023, ended 0–2 with Reims winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Lyon in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Reims in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lyon 59% versus Reims 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lyon 59% | Reims 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lyon 1.33 xG and Reims 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lyon attack 0.930 / defence 1.112 | Reims attack 1.046 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.293. Data: 64 Lyon games / 64 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lyon 33% | Draw 26% | Reims 41%. Fair-value odds: Lyon 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Reims 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Reims are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lyon (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reims offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lyon 40% | Reims 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lyon vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Groupama Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Mar 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lyon 33% | Draw 26% | Reims 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Lyon 1.33 / Reims 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Lyon attack 0.930 / def 1.112 | Reims attack 1.046 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Reims (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Lyon xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Reims xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lyon vs Reims kick off?
Lyon vs Reims kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Groupama Stadium.
What was the final score in Lyon vs Reims?
Lyon 1 - 1 Reims.
Where is Lyon vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Groupama Stadium.
What competition is Lyon vs Reims part of?
Lyon vs Reims is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lyon vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Lyon a 33% chance of winning, Reims a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lyon vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Lyon and Reims will score (BTTS).
Will Lyon vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Reims?
Record (5 meetings): Lyon 1W | Draws 2 | Reims 2W.
What form are Lyon and Reims in?
Lyon (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Reims (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Lyon's attack at 0.93x the league average against Reims's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Reims's attack versus Lyon's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
33%
3.03
26%
3.79
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Lyon xG
Total xG
2.83
1.50
Reims xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
7%
13.64
11%
9.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.8 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.8 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lyon vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Lyon and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Lyon and 1.50 for Reims, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Lyon vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lyon come into this having played 64 games, going 28W 12D 24L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Lyon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Reims sit at 1.39 PPG from 64 outings (23W 20D 21L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lyon on 1.50 PPG, Reims on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lyon's home form reads 14W 8D 10L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Reims have taken 1.22 points per game from 32 outings (9W 12D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Lyon are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.23 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lyon
Blended
Reims
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lyon and Reims in coming into this match?
Lyon have gone 28W 12D 24L in their last 64 games (1.50 PPG), while Reims have gone 23W 20D 21L in their last 64 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lyon at home or Reims away?
Lyon's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lyon at home: 1.56 PPG; Reims away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Lyon or Reims been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lyon have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Reims in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lyon and Reims runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Feb 2025, when Lyon won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lyon's record when hosting Reims specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Lyon
4
Draws
2
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Reims?
From 8 meetings on record, Lyon have won 2, Reims have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lyon and Reims last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Lyon 4-0 Reims.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lyon 56%, Reims 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Lyon) and 50% (Reims).
On the defensive side: Lyon keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Reims in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lyon home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lyon play Reims?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Lyon's games and 56% of Reims's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lyon vs Reims usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Lyon's recent games and 50% of Reims's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lyon and Reims tend to score early?
Lyon have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Reims in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lyon and Reims share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Groupama Stadium, Regular Season - 27, as Lyon and Reims drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 1.33 xG and Reims 1.50 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 0.93 / defence 1.11 against Reims attack 1.05 / defence 1.07, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lyon 33% | Draw 26% | Reims 41%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 59%, Reims 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lyon's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Reims's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lyon 1.50 PPG, Reims 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.