Paris Saint Germain 2-2 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Paris Saint Germain (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Paris Saint Germain face Reims.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Paris Saint Germain and Reims meet at Parc des Princes in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 March 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Paris Saint Germain (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Paris Saint Germain at Parc des Princes this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Reims have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reims's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Paris Saint Germain. A 1.10 PPG lead over Reims (2.20 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Paris Saint Germain register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Reims in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Paris Saint Germain have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 5 meetings, with Reims managing just 0 victories and 2 draws shared.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 3–0 with Paris Saint Germain winning.
The historical record gives Paris Saint Germain a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Paris Saint Germain — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Reims — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris Saint Germain 58% versus Reims 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris Saint Germain 66% | Reims 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris Saint Germain 2.17 xG and Reims 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.520 / defence 0.986 | Reims attack 1.024 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.202. Paris Saint Germain carry an above-average attack strength of 1.520 — their λ of 2.17 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 62 Paris Saint Germain games / 62 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 58% | Draw 22% | Reims 20%. Fair-value odds: Paris Saint Germain 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | Reims 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Paris Saint Germain (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris Saint Germain at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.38 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Paris Saint Germain 70% | Reims 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris Saint Germain vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Parc des Princes • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Mar 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 58% | Draw 22% | Reims 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 63% | xG Paris Saint Germain 2.17 / Reims 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.520 / def 0.986 | Reims attack 1.024 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Paris Saint Germain xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Reims xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris Saint Germain vs Reims kick off?
Paris Saint Germain vs Reims kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Parc des Princes.
What was the final score in Paris Saint Germain vs Reims?
Paris Saint Germain 2 - 2 Reims.
Where is Paris Saint Germain vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Princes.
What competition is Paris Saint Germain vs Reims part of?
Paris Saint Germain vs Reims is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris Saint Germain vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Paris Saint Germain a 58% chance of winning, Reims a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris Saint Germain vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Paris Saint Germain and Reims will score (BTTS).
Will Paris Saint Germain vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Reims?
Record (5 meetings): Paris Saint Germain 3W | Draws 2 | Reims 0W.
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Reims in?
Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Reims (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Paris Saint Germain's attacking strength (1.52x league average) is weighed against Reims's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.17. Flip it around — Reims's attack (1.02x) against Paris Saint Germain's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
58%
1.72
22%
4.50
20%
5.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Paris Saint Germain xG
Total xG
3.38
1.21
Reims xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
5.10
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
11%
8.76
Win to Nil
17%
5.79
2%
44.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris Saint Germain vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Paris Saint Germain and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain and 1.21 for Reims, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris Saint Germain vs Reims?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 62 outings, Paris Saint Germain have picked up 2.26 PPG on a 43W 11D 8L record — W-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Paris Saint Germain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Reims's form line: 22W 19D 21L from 62 games, 1.37 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Paris Saint Germain are the form team by 0.89 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Reims.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Paris Saint Germain have posted 2.19 PPG from 31 outings (21W 5D 5L).
On the road, Reims have gone 9W 11D 11L from 31 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Paris Saint Germain are averaging 2.31 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.21 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Paris Saint Germain have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
Reims
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Reims in coming into this match?
Paris Saint Germain have gone 43W 11D 8L in their last 62 games (2.26 PPG), while Reims have gone 22W 19D 21L in their last 62 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris Saint Germain at home or Reims away?
Paris Saint Germain's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris Saint Germain at home: 2.19 PPG; Reims away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Paris Saint Germain or Reims been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris Saint Germain have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Reims in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Paris Saint Germain won 4-0 on 23 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Paris Saint Germain have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Reims — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Paris Saint Germain
5
Draws
0
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Reims?
From 8 meetings on record, Paris Saint Germain have won 3, Reims have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Paris Saint Germain and Reims last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Paris Saint Germain 1-1 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Paris Saint Germain and Reims?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris Saint Germain 64%, Reims 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Paris Saint Germain) and 48% (Reims). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Reims in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris Saint Germain home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris Saint Germain play Reims?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Paris Saint Germain's games and 55% of Reims's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Paris Saint Germain vs Reims usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Paris Saint Germain's matches and 48% of Reims's.
Do Paris Saint Germain and Reims tend to score early?
Paris Saint Germain have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Reims in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Paris Saint Germain and Reims share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris Saint Germain and Reims finished level at 2-2 at Parc des Princes, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris Saint Germain 2.17 xG and Reims 1.21 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris Saint Germain attack 1.52 / defence 0.99 against Reims attack 1.02 / defence 1.09, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris Saint Germain 58% | Draw 22% | Reims 20%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris Saint Germain 66%, Reims 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Reims's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Reims (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.