Paris Saint Germain 2-2 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Paris Saint Germain (58%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Paris Saint Germain face Reims.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Paris Saint Germain and Reims meet at Parc des Princes in Ligue 1 (matchday 25). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 March 2024 at 12:00 UK time.
Form
Paris Saint Germain (all games): 6W 4D 0L across their last 10 — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Paris Saint Germain at home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Reims have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Reims's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Paris Saint Germain. A 1.10 PPG lead over Reims (2.20 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Paris Saint Germain's last 10 home games and Reims's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Paris Saint Germain's games and 70% of Reims's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record in our data favours Paris Saint Germain, who have won 3 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against Reims — Reims have 0 wins, with 2 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Nov 2023, ended Paris Saint Germain 3–0 Reims — a Paris Saint Germain win.
The head-to-head data gives Paris Saint Germain an edge — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
Paris Saint Germain — key trading statistics (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Reims — key trading statistics (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris Saint Germain 58% versus Reims 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris Saint Germain 66% | Reims 48%). Note also that Reims surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while Paris Saint Germain recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris Saint Germain 2.17 xG and Reims 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.520 / defence 0.986 | Reims attack 1.024 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.202. Paris Saint Germain carry an above-average attack rating of 1.520 — their 2.17 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Paris Saint Germain's last 62 games and Reims's last 62.
Result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 58% | Draw 22% | Reims 20%. Fair-value odds: Paris Saint Germain 1.72 | Draw 4.50 | Reims 5.10. The model has a clear lean to Paris Saint Germain (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (2.17 / 1.21) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris Saint Germain at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.38 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Paris Saint Germain's last 10 home games and Reims's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Paris Saint Germain 70% (last 10 home games) | Reims 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris Saint Germain vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 25 | Venue: Parc des Princes • Kick-off: Sunday 10 March 2024 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 58% | Draw 22% | Reims 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Paris Saint Germain 2.17 / Reims 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.520 / def 0.986 | Reims attack 1.024 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Paris Saint Germain xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Reims xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Paris Saint Germain vs Reims FAQs
What time does Paris Saint Germain vs Reims kick off?
Paris Saint Germain vs Reims kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Parc des Princes.
What was the final score in Paris Saint Germain vs Reims?
Paris Saint Germain 2 - 2 Reims.
Where is Paris Saint Germain vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Princes.
What competition is Paris Saint Germain vs Reims part of?
Paris Saint Germain vs Reims is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 25) (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris Saint Germain vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Paris Saint Germain a 58% chance of winning, Reims a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris Saint Germain vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Paris Saint Germain and Reims will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Paris Saint Germain vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Paris Saint Germain's attacking strength (1.52x league average) is weighed against Reims's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.17. Flip it around — Reims's attack (1.02x) against Paris Saint Germain's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from Paris Saint Germain's last 62 games and Reims's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
58%
1.72
22%
4.50
20%
5.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Paris Saint Germain xG
Total xG
3.38
1.21
Reims xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
5.10
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
11%
8.76
Win to Nil
17%
5.79
2%
44.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Paris Saint Germain vs Reims Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris Saint Germain vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Paris Saint Germain and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain and 1.21 for Reims, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris Saint Germain vs Reims?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 62 outings, Paris Saint Germain have picked up 2.26 PPG on a 43W 11D 8L record — W-W-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Reims's form line: 22W 19D 21L from 62 games, 1.37 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-L.
Put side by side, Paris Saint Germain are the form team by 0.89 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Reims.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Paris Saint Germain have posted 2.19 PPG from their last 31 home games (21W 5D 5L).
On the road, Reims have gone 9W 11D 11L from their last 31 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Paris Saint Germain are averaging 2.31 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.21 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Paris Saint Germain have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
Reims
Blended
Paris Saint Germain (Home) vs Reims (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
Reims
Blended
❓ Paris Saint Germain vs Reims Form FAQs
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Reims in coming into this match?
Paris Saint Germain have gone 43W 11D 8L in their last 62 games (2.26 PPG), while Reims have gone 22W 19D 21L in their last 62 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris Saint Germain at home or Reims away?
Paris Saint Germain's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris Saint Germain at home: 2.19 PPG; Reims away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Paris Saint Germain or Reims been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris Saint Germain have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Reims in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent in our data was on 25 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Paris Saint Germain won Paris Saint Germain 4-0 Reims on 23 Jan 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Paris Saint Germain have gone 1W 3D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Reims — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Paris Saint Germain
5
Draws
0
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Paris Saint Germain vs Reims H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Reims?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Paris Saint Germain have won 3, Reims have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Paris Saint Germain and Reims last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 January 2025: Paris Saint Germain 1-1 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Paris Saint Germain and Reims?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris Saint Germain 64%, Reims 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Paris Saint Germain) and 48% (Reims). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Reims in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris Saint Germain home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Paris Saint Germain vs Reims Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Paris Saint Germain and Reims matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Paris Saint Germain's games and 55% of Reims's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Paris Saint Germain and Reims matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Paris Saint Germain's matches and 48% of Reims's.
Do Paris Saint Germain and Reims matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 87% of Paris Saint Germain's recent matches and 61% of Reims's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Paris Saint Germain and Reims share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris Saint Germain and Reims finished level at 2-2 at Parc des Princes, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris Saint Germain 2.17 xG and Reims 1.21 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris Saint Germain attack 1.52 / defence 0.99 against Reims attack 1.02 / defence 1.09, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris Saint Germain 58% | Draw 22% | Reims 20%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris Saint Germain 66%, Reims 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Reims's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Reims (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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