Metz 1-0 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Clermont Foot at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Metz vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Metz host Clermont Foot at Stade Saint-Symphorien in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 March 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Metz — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Metz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Metz's home record at Stade Saint-Symphorien: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Clermont Foot stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Clermont Foot have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Metz 0.40 PPG, Clermont Foot 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Metz have won 1, Clermont Foot 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2023, ended 1–0 with Metz winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Metz in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Clermont Foot in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Metz 45% versus Clermont Foot 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Metz 40% | Clermont Foot 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Metz 1.05 xG and Clermont Foot 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Metz attack 0.674 / defence 1.147 | Clermont Foot attack 0.826 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 1.303 / away 1.209. Metz's attack strength of 0.674 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 24 Metz games / 62 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Metz 32% | Draw 32% | Clermont Foot 36%. Fair-value odds: Metz 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | Clermont Foot 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Clermont Foot at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Metz 40% | Clermont Foot 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Metz vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stade Saint-Symphorien • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Mar 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Metz 32% | Draw 32% | Clermont Foot 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Metz 1.05 / Clermont Foot 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Metz attack 0.674 / def 1.147 | Clermont Foot attack 0.826 / def 1.198 | league avg home 1.303 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Clermont Foot (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Metz xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Clermont Foot xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Metz vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Metz vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What was the final score in Metz vs Clermont Foot?
Metz 1 - 0 Clermont Foot.
Where is Metz vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What competition is Metz vs Clermont Foot part of?
Metz vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Metz vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Metz a 32% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Clermont Foot the favourite.
Will both teams score in Metz vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Metz and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Metz vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Clermont Foot?
Record (3 meetings): Metz 1W | Draws 2 | Clermont Foot 0W.
What form are Metz and Clermont Foot in?
Metz (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Clermont Foot (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Metz's attack at 0.67x the league average against Clermont Foot's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Clermont Foot's attack versus Metz's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
32%
3.16
32%
3.12
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Metz xG
Total xG
2.20
1.15
Clermont Foot xG
3.16
32%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
10%
9.94
13%
7.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 12.7 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Metz vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Metz and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Metz and 1.15 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Metz vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Metz come into this having played 62 games, going 25W 17D 20L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W. The sample for Metz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Clermont Foot sit at 1.23 PPG from 62 outings (20W 16D 26L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Metz on 1.48 PPG, Clermont Foot on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Metz's home form reads 11W 10D 9L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Clermont Foot have taken 1.20 points per game from 30 outings (9W 9D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Metz are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.00 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Metz
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Metz and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Metz have gone 25W 17D 20L in their last 62 games (1.48 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 20W 16D 26L in their last 62 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Metz at home or Clermont Foot away?
Metz's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Metz at home: 1.43 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Metz or Clermont Foot been keeping clean sheets recently?
Metz have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Clermont Foot in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Metz's record when hosting Clermont Foot specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Metz
3
Draws
0
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Clermont Foot?
From 6 meetings on record, Metz have won 3, Clermont Foot have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Metz and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Metz 3-1 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Metz and Clermont Foot?
Metz have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Metz 40%, Clermont Foot 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Metz) and 53% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Metz keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Metz have failed to score in 33% of games; Clermont Foot in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Metz home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Metz play Clermont Foot?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Metz's recent matches and 60% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Metz vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Metz's recent games and 53% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Metz and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Metz have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Metz defy the odds to beat Clermont Foot 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Metz beat Clermont Foot 1-0 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 1.05 xG and Clermont Foot 1.15 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Clermont Foot landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 0.67 / defence 1.15 against Clermont Foot attack 0.83 / defence 1.20, drawn from 24/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Metz 32% | Draw 32% | Clermont Foot 36%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Metz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 40%, Clermont Foot 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Metz's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Metz 1.48 PPG, Clermont Foot 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Metz win broke the near-deadlock. Metz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.