Stade Brestois 29 1-1 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stade Brestois 29 at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Stade Brestois 29 welcome Lille to Stade Francis-Le Blé in Ligue 1 (matchday 26). Kick-off is Sunday 17 March 2024 at 12:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Stade Brestois 29 have gone 6W 3D 1L — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Stade Brestois 29 at home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lille stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Lille have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Stade Brestois 29 carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Stade Brestois 29, 2 for Lille and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 22 Oct 2023, ended Stade Brestois 29 0–1 Lille — a Lille win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Stade Brestois 29 trading profile (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Lille trading profile (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stade Brestois 29 51% versus Lille 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stade Brestois 29 46% | Lille 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Stade Brestois 29 surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Lille have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Lille surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Stade Brestois 29 recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stade Brestois 29 1.28 xG and Lille 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.031 / defence 0.617 | Lille attack 0.816 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.225. Stade Brestois 29 have a tight defence (rating 0.617), which is pulling Lille's projected output down. Data: built from Stade Brestois 29's last 63 games and Lille's last 63.
Result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 52% | Draw 30% | Lille 18%. Fair-value odds: Stade Brestois 29 1.91 | Draw 3.35 | Lille 5.66. Stade Brestois 29 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS Yes probability 33% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Lille's lower xG of 0.62 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stade Brestois 29 as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stade Brestois 29 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.90 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Under 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Stade Brestois 29's last 10 home games and Lille's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stade Brestois 29 30% (last 10 home games) | Lille 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 26 | Venue: Stade Francis-Le Blé • Kick-off: Sunday 17 March 2024 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 52% | Draw 30% | Lille 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% (Under 70%) | BTTS Yes 33% (No 67%) | xG Stade Brestois 29 1.28 / Lille 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.031 / def 0.617 | Lille attack 0.816 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Stade Brestois 29 (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Lille xG
33%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille FAQs
What time does Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille kick off?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Sunday 17 March 2024 at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What was the final score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille?
Stade Brestois 29 1 - 1 Lille.
Where is Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What competition is Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille part of?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 26) (France).
Who is favourite to win Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Stade Brestois 29 a 52% chance of winning, Lille a 18% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Stade Brestois 29 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Stade Brestois 29 and Lille will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (67%).
Will Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (70%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Stade Brestois 29's attack rating (1.03) and Lille's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lille's attack versus Stade Brestois 29's defence, projects 0.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Stade Brestois 29's last 63 games and Lille's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.6%), 1-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stade Brestois 29 Win
52%
1.91
30%
3.35
18%
5.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Total xG
1.90
0.62
Lille xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
5.66
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
2.99
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
54%
1.85
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
28%
3.53
5%
20.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 9.3 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.2 | 11.8 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 7.6 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.7%.
How many goals are Stade Brestois 29 and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Stade Brestois 29 and 0.62 for Lille, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stade Brestois 29 come into this having played 63 games, going 24W 18D 21L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Lille sit at 1.73 PPG from 63 outings (30W 19D 14L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stade Brestois 29 on 1.43 PPG, Lille on 1.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Stade Brestois 29's home form reads 14W 9D 8L across their last 31 home games, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Lille have taken 1.23 points per game from their last 31 away games (9W 11D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lille's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stade Brestois 29 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stade Brestois 29 are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.60 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Lille in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
Lille
Blended
Stade Brestois 29 (Home) vs Lille (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
Lille
Blended
❓ Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille Form FAQs
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Lille in coming into this match?
Stade Brestois 29 have gone 24W 18D 21L in their last 63 games (1.43 PPG), while Lille have gone 30W 19D 14L in their last 63 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stade Brestois 29 at home or Lille away?
Stade Brestois 29's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stade Brestois 29 at home: 1.65 PPG; Lille away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Stade Brestois 29 or Lille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stade Brestois 29 have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Lille in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to January 2022. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Stade Brestois 29's record when hosting Lille specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Stade Brestois 29
5
Draws
3
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Lille?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Stade Brestois 29 have won 2, Lille have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Stade Brestois 29 and Lille last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Lille 1-1 Stade Brestois 29.
Who has won more matches between Stade Brestois 29 and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stade Brestois 29 48%, Lille 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Stade Brestois 29) and 39% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Stade Brestois 29 keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Lille in 36%; Lille in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stade Brestois 29 home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stade Brestois 29 and Lille matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Stade Brestois 29's recent matches and 52% of Lille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Stade Brestois 29 and Lille matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Stade Brestois 29's recent games and 39% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stade Brestois 29 and Lille matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Stade Brestois 29's recent matches and 64% of Lille's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stade Brestois 29 and Lille share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stade Brestois 29 and Lille finished level at 1-1 at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Brestois 29 1.28 xG and Lille 0.62 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.03 / defence 0.62 against Lille attack 0.82 / defence 0.96, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stade Brestois 29 52% | Draw 30% | Lille 18%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Brestois 29 46%, Lille 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Lille's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stade Brestois 29 1.43 PPG, Lille 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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