Le Havre 1-2 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Le Havre at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Le Havre vs Reims fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Reims make the trip to Stade Océane to face Le Havre in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Sunday 25 February 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Le Havre (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Océane, Le Havre have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Reims's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reims away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Le Havre lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2023, ended 0–1 with Reims winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Le Havre — key trading statistics (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Reims — key trading statistics (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 40% versus Reims 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 35% | Reims 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.31 xG and Reims 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.889 / defence 0.994 | Reims attack 0.969 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.136. Data: 22 Le Havre games / 60 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 40% | Draw 31% | Reims 29%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Reims 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Le Havre as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Le Havre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Le Havre 40% | Reims 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 40% | Draw 31% | Reims 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Le Havre 1.31 / Reims 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.889 / def 0.994 | Reims attack 0.969 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Reims xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Reims kick off?
Le Havre vs Reims kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 25 February 2024 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Reims?
Le Havre 1 - 2 Reims.
Where is Le Havre vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Reims part of?
Le Havre vs Reims is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 40% chance of winning, Reims a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Le Havre and Reims will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Reims?
Record (1 meetings): Le Havre 0W | Draws 0 | Reims 1W.
What form are Le Havre and Reims in?
Le Havre (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Reims (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Le Havre's attack at 0.89x the league average against Reims's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Reims's attack (0.97x) against Le Havre's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 22/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
40%
2.52
31%
3.22
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.41
1.09
Reims xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
13%
7.52
8%
12.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.9 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.09 for Reims, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Le Havre have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 25W 24D 11L record — W-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Reims's form line: 21W 19D 20L from 60 games, 1.37 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-D. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.65 PPG for Le Havre against 1.37 for Reims. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Le Havre have posted 1.86 PPG from 29 outings (15W 9D 5L).
On the road, Reims have gone 8W 11D 10L from 29 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Le Havre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Le Havre are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.22 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Reims
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Reims in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 25W 24D 11L in their last 60 games (1.65 PPG), while Reims have gone 21W 19D 20L in their last 60 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Reims away?
Le Havre's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.86 PPG; Reims away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Reims been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Reims in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Reims won 0-3 on 10 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Le Havre have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Reims — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Le Havre
1
Draws
3
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Reims?
From 4 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 0, Reims have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Reims last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2025, when Reims 1-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Reims?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 34%, Reims 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Le Havre) and 45% (Reims).
On the defensive side: Le Havre keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Le Havre have failed to score in 34% of games; Reims in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Reims?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of Le Havre's recent matches and 52% of Reims's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Reims usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Le Havre's recent games and 45% of Reims's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Reims tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Reims in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Reims defy the odds to beat Le Havre 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims beat Le Havre 1-2 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.31 xG and Reims 1.09 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Reims outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.89 / defence 0.99 against Reims attack 0.97 / defence 1.09, drawn from 22/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 40% | Draw 31% | Reims 29%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Reims win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 35%, Reims 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Reims's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Le Havre 1.65 PPG, Reims 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reims win broke the near-deadlock. Le Havre (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Reims (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.