Clermont Foot 1-5 Marseille – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Clermont Foot take on Marseille.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Marseille make the trip to Stade Gabriel-Montpied to face Clermont Foot in Ligue 1 (matchday 24). The match kicks off on Saturday 2 March 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form
Clermont Foot (all games): 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Clermont Foot's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Marseille's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: D L D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Marseille have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Marseille arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head sample leans to Marseille, who have 4 wins from 5 H2H matches compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 17 Dec 2023, ended Clermont Foot 1–2 Marseille — a Marseille win.
Marseille have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading & In-Play
Clermont Foot — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Marseille — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 52% versus Marseille 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 48% | Marseille 54%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Clermont Foot surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Marseille have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.02 xG and Marseille 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.754 / defence 1.060 | Marseille attack 0.876 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.120. Clermont Foot's attack rating of 0.754 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.02. Data: built from Clermont Foot's last 61 games and Marseille's last 61.
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 32% | Draw 35% | Marseille 33%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 3.14 | Draw 2.85 | Marseille 3.02. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Under 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Clermont Foot's last 10 home games and Marseille's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Clermont Foot 30% (last 10 home games) | Marseille 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Marseille | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 24 | Venue: Stade Gabriel-Montpied • Kick-off: Saturday 2 March 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 32% | Draw 35% | Marseille 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Clermont Foot 1.02 / Marseille 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.754 / def 1.060 | Marseille attack 0.876 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Marseille xG
44%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Clermont Foot vs Marseille FAQs
What time does Clermont Foot vs Marseille kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Marseille kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Marseille?
Clermont Foot 1 - 5 Marseille.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Marseille being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Marseille part of?
Clermont Foot vs Marseille is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 24) (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Marseille?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 32% chance of winning, Marseille a 33% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Marseille?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Clermont Foot and Marseille will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Clermont Foot vs Marseille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Clermont Foot's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Marseille's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. Flip it around — Marseille's attack (0.88x) against Clermont Foot's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from Clermont Foot's last 61 games and Marseille's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.14
35%
2.85
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.06
1.04
Marseille xG
3.14
32%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
11%
8.87
12%
8.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Clermont Foot vs Marseille Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Marseille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Marseille expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.04 for Marseille, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Marseille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Clermont Foot come into this having played 61 games, going 20W 16D 25L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-D.
On the other side, Marseille sit at 1.74 PPG from 61 outings (30W 16D 15L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-W across their last five.
Marseille carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Clermont Foot's home form reads 10W 7D 13L across their last 30 home games, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Marseille have taken 1.53 points per game from their last 30 away games (13W 7D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Marseille are on 1.64 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Blended
Marseille
Blended
Clermont Foot (Home) vs Marseille (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Clermont Foot
Blended
Marseille
Blended
❓ Clermont Foot vs Marseille Form FAQs
What form are Clermont Foot and Marseille in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 20W 16D 25L in their last 61 games (1.25 PPG), while Marseille have gone 30W 16D 15L in their last 61 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Marseille away?
Marseille's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.23 PPG; Marseille away: 1.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Clermont Foot and Marseille, the earliest from October 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent in our data was on 2 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Marseille have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Marseille won Clermont Foot 1-5 Marseille on 2 Mar 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Clermont Foot have gone 0W 0D 3L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Marseille — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Clermont Foot
0
Draws
5
Marseille
Recent Meetings
❓ Clermont Foot vs Marseille H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Marseille?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Clermont Foot have won 1, Marseille have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Marseille last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 March 2024: Clermont Foot 1-5 Marseille.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Marseille?
Marseille have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Marseille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 43%, Marseille 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Clermont Foot) and 47% (Marseille).
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot have failed to score in 40% of games; Marseille in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Marseille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Clermont Foot vs Marseille Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Clermont Foot and Marseille matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 50% of Marseille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Clermont Foot and Marseille matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 47% of Marseille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Marseille matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 73% of Marseille's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Marseille run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Clermont Foot.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Marseille beat Clermont Foot 1-5 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.02 xG and Marseille 1.04 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Marseille outscored their 1.04 projection by 4.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.75 / defence 1.06 against Marseille attack 0.88 / defence 1.00, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 32% | Draw 35% | Marseille 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Marseille win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 48%, Marseille 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Marseille's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Marseille arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.25. That form edge translated into the three points. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Marseille (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Ligue 1 fixtures — matchday 24
All Ligue 1 fixtures →
More French football predictions →