Nantes 2-0 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Le Havre at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nantes vs Le Havre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Le Havre make the trip to Stade de la Beaujoire to face Nantes in Ligue 1 (matchday 23). The match kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 16:15 UK time.
Current Form
Nantes's record over their last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Nantes have gone 1W 2D 7L in their last 10 home games (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Le Havre (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Le Havre's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Le Havre are 0.80 PPG clear of Nantes over their recent games (1.20 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Le Havre edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2025, ended Nantes 1–1 Le Havre — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Nantes — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Le Havre — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantes 61% versus Le Havre 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantes 46% | Le Havre 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantes 1.01 xG and Le Havre 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantes attack 0.730 / defence 1.381 | Le Havre attack 0.742 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.221. Nantes's attack rating of 0.730 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.01. Le Havre's attack rating of 0.742 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.25. Nantes's defence rating of 1.381 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Le Havre's projected output up. Data: built from Nantes's last 56 games and Le Havre's last 56.
Result probabilities: Nantes 30% | Draw 28% | Le Havre 42%. Fair-value odds: Nantes 3.36 | Draw 3.52 | Le Havre 2.39. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Le Havre are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Le Havre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 61% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Nantes 60% (last 10 home games) | Le Havre 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantes vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 23 | Venue: Stade de la Beaujoire • Kick-off: Sunday 22 February 2026 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantes 30% | Draw 28% | Le Havre 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Nantes 1.01 / Le Havre 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Nantes attack 0.730 / def 1.381 | Le Havre attack 0.742 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Nantes xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Le Havre xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Nantes vs Le Havre FAQs
What time does Nantes vs Le Havre kick off?
Nantes vs Le Havre kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Stade de la Beaujoire.
What was the final score in Nantes vs Le Havre?
Nantes 2 - 0 Le Havre.
Where is Nantes vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Beaujoire.
What competition is Nantes vs Le Havre part of?
Nantes vs Le Havre is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 23) (France).
Who is favourite to win Nantes vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Nantes a 30% chance of winning, Le Havre a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantes vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Nantes and Le Havre will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Nantes vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Nantes's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Le Havre's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. Flip it around — Le Havre's attack (0.74x) against Nantes's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from Nantes's last 56 games and Le Havre's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
30%
3.36
28%
3.52
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Nantes xG
Total xG
2.26
1.25
Le Havre xG
3.36
30%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
37%
2.74
Win to Nil
9%
11.73
15%
6.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Nantes vs Le Havre Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantes vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Nantes and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Nantes and 1.25 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantes vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nantes come into this having played 56 games, going 11W 17D 28L for 0.89 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Le Havre sit at 1.07 PPG from 56 outings (16W 12D 28L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.89 PPG for Nantes against 1.07 for Le Havre. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Nantes's home form reads 5W 8D 14L across their last 27 home games, a 0.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Le Havre have taken 1.07 points per game from their last 27 away games (8W 5D 14L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nantes are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.07 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nantes have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantes
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
Nantes (Home) vs Le Havre (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Nantes
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
❓ Nantes vs Le Havre Form FAQs
What form are Nantes and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Nantes have gone 11W 17D 28L in their last 56 games (0.89 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 16W 12D 28L in their last 56 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantes at home or Le Havre away?
Le Havre's away record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantes at home: 0.85 PPG; Le Havre away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 22 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nantes have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Le Havre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Nantes
2
Draws
2
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Nantes vs Le Havre H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Le Havre?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Nantes have won 2, Le Havre have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nantes and Le Havre last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2026: Nantes 2-0 Le Havre.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantes 52%, Le Havre 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Nantes) and 44% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Nantes have failed to score in 33% of games; Le Havre in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantes home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Nantes vs Le Havre Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Nantes and Le Havre matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Nantes's recent matches and 52% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Nantes and Le Havre matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Nantes's recent games and 44% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantes and Le Havre matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Nantes's recent matches and 56% of Le Havre's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nantes cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Le Havre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nantes beat Le Havre 2-0 at Stade de la Beaujoire, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 1.01 xG and Le Havre 1.25 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Nantes beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Le Havre landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 0.73 / defence 1.38 against Le Havre attack 0.74 / defence 0.93, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantes 30% | Draw 28% | Le Havre 42%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Nantes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 46%, Le Havre 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantes's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Le Havre's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nantes 0.89 PPG, Le Havre 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nantes win broke the near-deadlock. Nantes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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