Lyon 3-2 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lyon at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lyon face Auxerre.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parc Olympique Lyonnais plays host to Lyon versus Auxerre in Ligue 1 (matchday 31). Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Lyon's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home, Lyon have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Lyon are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Auxerre have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Auxerre away from home: 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Lyon, 1.20 for Auxerre — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Lyon, 1 for Auxerre and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 23 Nov 2025, ended Lyon 0–0 Auxerre — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Lyon — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Auxerre — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lyon 55% versus Auxerre 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lyon 58% | Auxerre 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lyon 1.46 xG and Auxerre 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lyon attack 1.040 / defence 0.802 | Auxerre attack 0.898 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.241. Data: built from Lyon's last 64 games and Auxerre's last 64.
Result probabilities: Lyon 49% | Draw 30% | Auxerre 22%. Fair-value odds: Lyon 2.06 | Draw 3.35 | Auxerre 4.65. Lyon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lyon are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lyon if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Lyon 50% (last 10 home games) | Auxerre 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lyon vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 31 | Venue: Parc Olympique Lyonnais • Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lyon 49% | Draw 30% | Auxerre 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Lyon 1.46 / Auxerre 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Lyon attack 1.040 / def 0.802 | Auxerre attack 0.898 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Lyon (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Lyon xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Auxerre xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lyon vs Auxerre FAQs
What time does Lyon vs Auxerre kick off?
Lyon vs Auxerre kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Parc Olympique Lyonnais.
What was the final score in Lyon vs Auxerre?
Lyon 3 - 2 Auxerre.
Where is Lyon vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Parc Olympique Lyonnais.
What competition is Lyon vs Auxerre part of?
Lyon vs Auxerre is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 31) (France).
Who is favourite to win Lyon vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Lyon a 49% chance of winning, Auxerre a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lyon vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Lyon and Auxerre will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Lyon vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lyon's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Auxerre's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. Flip it around — Auxerre's attack (0.90x) against Lyon's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from Lyon's last 64 games and Auxerre's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
49%
2.06
30%
3.35
22%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Lyon xG
Total xG
2.35
0.89
Auxerre xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
4.65
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
20%
5.03
5%
19.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.4 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lyon vs Auxerre Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lyon vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Lyon and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Lyon and 0.89 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Lyon vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lyon come into this having played 64 games, going 33W 12D 19L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-W.
On the other side, Auxerre sit at 1.05 PPG from 64 outings (16W 19D 29L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-D across their last five.
Lyon carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.68 PPG clear of Auxerre — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Lyon's home form reads 21W 3D 7L across their last 31 home games, a 2.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Auxerre have taken 0.77 points per game from their last 31 away games (5W 9D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lyon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lyon are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.14 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Lyon have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lyon
Current Season
Auxerre
Current Season
Lyon (Home) vs Auxerre (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lyon
Current Season
Auxerre
Current Season
❓ Lyon vs Auxerre Form FAQs
What form are Lyon and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Lyon have gone 33W 12D 19L in their last 64 games (1.73 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 16W 19D 29L in their last 64 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lyon at home or Auxerre away?
Lyon's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lyon at home: 2.13 PPG; Auxerre away: 0.77 PPG.
Have Lyon or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lyon have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Auxerre in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 7 H2H matches between Lyon and Auxerre, the earliest from August 2022. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 4 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Lyon have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lyon have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Auxerre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Lyon
2
Draws
1
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Lyon vs Auxerre H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Auxerre?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Lyon have won 4, Auxerre have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lyon and Auxerre last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 September 2026: Lyon 3-1 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Lyon and Auxerre?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 56% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lyon 52%, Auxerre 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Lyon) and 55% (Auxerre). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lyon keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Auxerre in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lyon home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lyon vs Auxerre Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lyon and Auxerre matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Lyon's recent matches and 58% of Auxerre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lyon and Auxerre matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Lyon's matches and 55% of Auxerre's.
Do Lyon and Auxerre matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Lyon's recent matches and 81% of Auxerre's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lyon edge out Auxerre 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lyon beat Auxerre 3-2 at Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 1.46 xG and Auxerre 0.89 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Lyon beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Auxerre outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 1.04 / defence 0.80 against Auxerre attack 0.90 / defence 0.96, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lyon 49% | Draw 30% | Auxerre 22%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 58%, Auxerre 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lyon's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Auxerre's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lyon arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.05. Form held, and they took the win. Lyon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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