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Poisson rates Le Havre at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Le Havre vs Metz encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Metz travel to Stade Océane to take on Le Havre. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 April 2026, 16:15 UTC.

Form Guide

Le Havre — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Stade Océane, Le Havre have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game.

Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Metz have recorded 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Metz have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

Le Havre are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 1 data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Le Havre, 1 for Metz and 3 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Le Havre in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Metz in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 56% versus Metz 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 48% | Metz 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.50 xG and Metz 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.775 / defence 0.757 | Metz attack 0.658 / defence 1.315. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.284. Le Havre's attack strength of 0.775 is below the league average — the 1.50 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Metz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.315 — this is suppressing Le Havre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Le Havre's defence rating of 0.757 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 64 Le Havre games / 30 Metz games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Le Havre 57% | Draw 29% | Metz 14%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 1.75 | Draw 3.45 | Metz 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Le Havre (57%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Le Havre are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Le Havre 50% | Metz 50%.

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