Monaco 2-2 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Monaco (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Monaco face Auxerre.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Auxerre travel to Stade Louis II to take on Monaco. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 April 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Monaco — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Monaco have posted 6W 0D 4L at Stade Louis II — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.80 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Louis II this season.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Auxerre have recorded 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Auxerre's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Monaco have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Monaco have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 5 past contests while Auxerre have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 4.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with Monaco winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Monaco and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 4.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Monaco in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Auxerre in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monaco 62% versus Auxerre 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monaco 64% | Auxerre 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monaco 1.65 xG and Auxerre 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monaco attack 1.204 / defence 0.963 | Auxerre attack 0.842 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.189. Data: 63 Monaco games / 63 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monaco 52% | Draw 27% | Auxerre 21%. Fair-value odds: Monaco 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Auxerre 4.76. Monaco hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Monaco as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monaco offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Monaco 50% | Auxerre 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monaco vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade Louis II • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Apr 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monaco 52% | Draw 27% | Auxerre 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Monaco 1.65 / Auxerre 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Monaco attack 1.204 / def 0.963 | Auxerre attack 0.842 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Monaco (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Monaco xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Auxerre xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monaco vs Auxerre kick off?
Monaco vs Auxerre kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Stade Louis II.
What was the final score in Monaco vs Auxerre?
Monaco 2 - 2 Auxerre.
Where is Monaco vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Louis II.
What competition is Monaco vs Auxerre part of?
Monaco vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Monaco vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Monaco a 52% chance of winning, Auxerre a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monaco vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Monaco and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Monaco vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Auxerre?
Record (5 meetings): Monaco 5W | Draws 0 | Auxerre 0W.
What form are Monaco and Auxerre in?
Monaco (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Auxerre (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Monaco's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Auxerre's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Monaco's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
52%
1.92
27%
3.71
21%
4.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Monaco xG
Total xG
2.61
0.96
Auxerre xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
4.80
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
19%
5.20
Win to Nil
20%
5.02
4%
24.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.7 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monaco vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Monaco and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Monaco and 0.96 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Monaco vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Monaco's recent record stands at 33W 11D 19L from 63 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Auxerre, meanwhile, have gone 16W 18D 29L across 63 games — 1.05 PPG, with D-L-W-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Monaco by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Auxerre heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Monaco have managed 21W 4D 6L from 31 games — 2.16 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.75 PPG overall — Monaco are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Auxerre's away record stands at 5W 8D 18L across 31 trips, a 0.74 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monaco come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Monaco are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.13 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Monaco have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monaco
Current Season
Auxerre
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monaco and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Monaco have gone 33W 11D 19L in their last 63 games (1.75 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 16W 18D 29L in their last 63 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monaco at home or Auxerre away?
Monaco's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monaco at home: 2.16 PPG; Auxerre away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Monaco and Auxerre runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Sep 2024, when Monaco won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Monaco's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Monaco
1
Draws
0
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Auxerre?
From 6 meetings on record, Monaco have won 5, Auxerre have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Monaco and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Monaco 2-2 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Monaco and Auxerre?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monaco 58%, Auxerre 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Monaco) and 52% (Auxerre). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Monaco keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Auxerre in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monaco home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monaco play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Monaco's games and 55% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Monaco vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Monaco's matches and 52% of Auxerre's.
Do Monaco and Auxerre tend to score early?
Monaco have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Monaco and Auxerre share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monaco and Auxerre finished level at 2-2 at Stade Louis II, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monaco 1.65 xG and Auxerre 0.96 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Auxerre outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monaco attack 1.20 / defence 0.96 against Auxerre attack 0.84 / defence 0.94, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monaco 52% | Draw 27% | Auxerre 21%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monaco 64%, Auxerre 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monaco's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Auxerre's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Monaco arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Monaco (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.