Paris FC 0-1 Lille – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lille at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Paris FC vs Lille fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Paris FC host Lille at Stade Jean Bouin in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 April 2026 at 16:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Paris FC have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Paris FC's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stade Jean Bouin this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lille stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Lille have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Lille — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Paris FC, 1 for Lille and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2025, ended 2–4 with Lille winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Paris FC in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Lille in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 55% versus Lille 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris FC 50% | Lille 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 1.20 xG and Lille 1.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 1.021 / defence 1.280 | Lille attack 1.184 / defence 0.803. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.284. Data: 30 Paris FC games / 64 Lille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris FC 22% | Draw 24% | Lille 53%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 4.55 | Draw 4.17 | Lille 1.89. Lille hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.20 / 1.95) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lille at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lille offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. This conflicts with form data: Paris FC 50% | Lille 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stade Jean Bouin • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Apr 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 22% | Draw 24% | Lille 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 61% | xG Paris FC 1.20 / Lille 1.95 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 1.021 / def 1.280 | Lille attack 1.184 / def 0.803 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Lille (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
1.95
Lille xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris FC vs Lille kick off?
Paris FC vs Lille kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 26 April 2026 at Stade Jean Bouin.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs Lille?
Paris FC 0 - 1 Lille.
Where is Paris FC vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stade Jean Bouin.
What competition is Paris FC vs Lille part of?
Paris FC vs Lille is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 22% chance of winning, Lille a 53% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Paris FC and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Paris FC vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Lille?
Record (1 meetings): Paris FC 0W | Draws 0 | Lille 1W.
What form are Paris FC and Lille in?
Paris FC (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Lille (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Paris FC's attack rating (1.02) and Lille's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lille's attack versus Paris FC's defence, projects 1.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
22%
4.52
24%
4.08
53%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Paris FC xG
Total xG
3.15
1.95
Lille xG
4.52
22%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
1.87
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
14%
6.99
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
3%
31.62
16%
6.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 8.3 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Paris FC and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Paris FC and 1.95 for Lille, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 64 outings, Paris FC have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 30W 17D 17L record — D-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Lille's form line: 33W 15D 16L from 64 games, 1.78 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Paris FC on 1.67 PPG, Lille on 1.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Paris FC have posted 1.94 PPG from 31 outings (18W 6D 7L).
On the road, Lille have gone 13W 7D 11L from 31 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Paris FC are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.58 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Current Season
Lille
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris FC and Lille in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 30W 17D 17L in their last 64 games (1.67 PPG), while Lille have gone 33W 15D 16L in their last 64 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris FC at home or Lille away?
Paris FC's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris FC at home: 1.94 PPG; Lille away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Paris FC or Lille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Lille in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Paris FC and Lille runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Paris FC
0
Draws
2
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Lille?
From 2 meetings on record, Paris FC have won 0, Lille have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Paris FC and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Paris FC 0-1 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Paris FC and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris FC 55%, Lille 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Paris FC) and 48% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Paris FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Lille in 36%; Lille in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris FC play Lille?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Paris FC's recent matches and 39% of Lille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Paris FC vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Paris FC's recent games and 48% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Paris FC and Lille tend to score early?
Paris FC have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Lille in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lille edge out Paris FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Paris FC 0-1 at Stade Jean Bouin, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.20 xG and Lille 1.95 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Paris FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Lille landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 1.02 / defence 1.28 against Lille attack 1.18 / defence 0.80, drawn from 30/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris FC 22% | Draw 24% | Lille 53%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 50%, Lille 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris FC's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Lille's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Paris FC 1.67 PPG, Lille 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lille win broke the near-deadlock. Paris FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward. Lille (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.