Toulouse 2-2 Monaco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Monaco (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Toulouse face Monaco.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Toulouse host Monaco at Stadium de Toulouse in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 April 2026 at 20:05 UTC.
Form Guide
Toulouse — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Toulouse have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stadium de Toulouse — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Toulouse are significantly better at Stadium de Toulouse than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Monaco stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Monaco have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Monaco — 1.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Toulouse, 4 for Monaco and 1 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 0–1 with Monaco winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Toulouse in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Monaco in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 50% versus Monaco 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 50% | Monaco 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.22 xG and Monaco 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.798 / defence 1.096 | Monaco attack 1.076 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.264. Toulouse's attack strength of 0.798 is below the league average — the 1.22 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 64 Toulouse games / 64 Monaco games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 29% | Draw 29% | Monaco 42%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | Monaco 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Monaco at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monaco offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Toulouse 20% | Monaco 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Monaco | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Apr 2026, 20:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 29% | Draw 29% | Monaco 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Toulouse 1.22 / Monaco 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.798 / def 1.096 | Monaco attack 1.076 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Monaco (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Monaco xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Monaco kick off?
Toulouse vs Monaco kicked off at 20:05 on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Monaco?
Toulouse 2 - 2 Monaco.
Where is Toulouse vs Monaco being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Monaco part of?
Toulouse vs Monaco is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Monaco?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 29% chance of winning, Monaco a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Monaco?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Toulouse and Monaco will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Monaco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Monaco?
Record (7 meetings): Toulouse 2W | Draws 1 | Monaco 4W.
What form are Toulouse and Monaco in?
Toulouse (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Monaco (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Toulouse's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Monaco's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Monaco's attack versus Toulouse's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
29%
3.40
29%
3.51
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.71
1.49
Monaco xG
3.40
29%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
7%
15.11
12%
8.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 10.0 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.1 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Monaco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Monaco expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.49 for Monaco, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Monaco?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 64 outings, Toulouse have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 21W 16D 27L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Monaco's form line: 33W 12D 19L from 64 games, 1.73 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Monaco are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Toulouse.
Venue Form
On home soil, Toulouse have posted 1.26 PPG from 31 outings (10W 9D 12L).
On the road, Monaco have gone 11W 7D 13L from 31 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Monaco's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Toulouse are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Monaco are on 1.80 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Monaco in 62%.
Last 64 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Current Season
Monaco
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Monaco in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 21W 16D 27L in their last 64 games (1.23 PPG), while Monaco have gone 33W 12D 19L in their last 64 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Monaco away?
Monaco's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 1.26 PPG; Monaco away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Toulouse's record when hosting Monaco specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Toulouse
2
Draws
4
Monaco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Monaco?
From 8 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 2, Monaco have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Monaco last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Toulouse 2-2 Monaco.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Monaco?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 55%, Monaco 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Toulouse) and 64% (Monaco). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Monaco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Monaco?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Toulouse's games and 68% of Monaco's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Toulouse vs Monaco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Toulouse's matches and 64% of Monaco's.
Do Toulouse and Monaco tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Monaco in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Toulouse and Monaco share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse and Monaco finished level at 2-2 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.22 xG and Monaco 1.49 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.80 / defence 1.10 against Monaco attack 1.08 / defence 1.04, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 29% | Draw 29% | Monaco 42%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 50%, Monaco 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Monaco's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Monaco arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.