Lille 0-0 Lyon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lille at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lille vs Lyon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lille host Lyon at Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 December 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Lille have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D D D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Lille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lille's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 1L across 8 games at Stade Pierre-Mauroy this term (1.88 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lyon stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Lyon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lyon have gone 2W 2D 4L from 8 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lille at 1.60 PPG versus Lyon's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lille register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant matches, Lyon in 62% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Lille in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Lyon in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lille 75% and Lyon 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 56% | Lyon 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 1.61 xG and Lyon 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 0.987 / defence 1.077 | Lyon attack 0.836 / defence 1.385. League average goals — home 1.175 / away 1.301. Lyon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.385 — this is suppressing Lille's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Lille games / 16 Lyon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lille 46% | Draw 27% | Lyon 27%. Fair-value odds: Lille 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Lyon 3.70. Lille hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lille are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lille offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lille 75% | Lyon 62% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Lyon | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Dec 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 46% | Draw 27% | Lyon 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Lille 1.61 / Lyon 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 0.987 / def 1.077 | Lyon attack 0.836 / def 1.385 | league avg home 1.175 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Lille (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Lille xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Lyon xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lille vs Lyon kick off?
Lille vs Lyon kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 12 December 2021 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What was the final score in Lille vs Lyon?
Lille 0 - 0 Lyon.
Where is Lille vs Lyon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Lyon part of?
Lille vs Lyon is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Lyon?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 46% chance of winning, Lyon a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Lyon?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Lille and Lyon will score (BTTS).
Will Lille vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Lyon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lille and Lyon in?
Lille (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Lyon (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lille's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Lyon's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. The same calculation in reverse, Lyon's attack versus Lille's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
46%
2.15
27%
3.74
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Lille xG
Total xG
2.78
1.17
Lyon xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
14%
6.93
5%
18.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.7 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Lille and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Lille and 1.17 for Lyon, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Lyon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lille come into this having played 16 games, going 6W 5D 5L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-W. The sample for Lille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lyon sit at 1.44 PPG from 16 outings (6W 5D 5L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Lyon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lille on 1.44 PPG, Lyon on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lille's home form reads 4W 3D 1L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Lille are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Lyon have taken 1.00 points per game from 8 outings (2W 2D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lyon's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lille are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Lyon are on 1.56 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lille have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Lyon in 75%.
Last 16 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Blended
Lyon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lille and Lyon in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 6W 5D 5L in their last 16 games (1.44 PPG), while Lyon have gone 6W 5D 5L in their last 16 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Lyon away?
Lille's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 1.88 PPG; Lyon away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lille and Lyon runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lyon go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Lille's record when hosting Lyon specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Lille
3
Draws
5
Lyon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Lyon?
From 10 meetings on record, Lille have won 2, Lyon have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lille and Lyon last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Lyon 1-0 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Lyon?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lille at 75%, Lyon at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lille) and 62% (Lyon). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Lyon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lille play Lyon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Lille's games and 62% of Lyon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lille vs Lyon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Lille's matches and 62% of Lyon's.
Do Lille and Lyon tend to score early?
Lille have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Lyon in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lille's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 18, as Lille and Lyon drew 0-0 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 1.61 xG and Lyon 1.17 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lille fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Lyon landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 0.99 / defence 1.08 against Lyon attack 0.84 / defence 1.39, drawn from 17/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lille 46% | Draw 27% | Lyon 27%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 56%, Lyon 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lille's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Lyon's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lille 1.44 PPG, Lyon 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lille (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Lyon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.