Bordeaux 2-3 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lille at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bordeaux vs Lille fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bordeaux host Lille at Stade Matmut-Atlantique in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 22 December 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bordeaux stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Bordeaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bordeaux's home record at Stade Matmut-Atlantique: 1W 4D 4L from 9 Ligue 1 appearances (0.78 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 89% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lille — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lille have gone 2W 3D 4L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bordeaux at 1.00 PPG versus Lille's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 78% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
Bordeaux in-play and half-time data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 89% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Lille in-play and half-time data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bordeaux 83% and Lille 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bordeaux 72% | Lille 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bordeaux 1.39 xG and Lille 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bordeaux attack 1.048 / defence 1.430 | Lille attack 0.906 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.149 / away 1.303. Data: 18 Bordeaux games / 18 Lille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bordeaux 31% | Draw 25% | Lille 44%. Fair-value odds: Bordeaux 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | Lille 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lille are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lille offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bordeaux 89% | Lille 78% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bordeaux vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Dec 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bordeaux 31% | Draw 25% | Lille 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Bordeaux 1.39 / Lille 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Bordeaux attack 1.048 / def 1.430 | Lille attack 0.906 / def 1.152 | league avg home 1.149 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Lille (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Bordeaux xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Lille xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bordeaux vs Lille kick off?
Bordeaux vs Lille kicked off at 20:00 on Wednesday 22 December 2021 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What was the final score in Bordeaux vs Lille?
Bordeaux 2 - 3 Lille.
Where is Bordeaux vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What competition is Bordeaux vs Lille part of?
Bordeaux vs Lille is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bordeaux vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Bordeaux a 31% chance of winning, Lille a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bordeaux vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Bordeaux and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Bordeaux vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Lille?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bordeaux and Lille in?
Bordeaux (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Lille (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bordeaux's attack rating (1.05) and Lille's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lille's attack versus Bordeaux's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
31%
3.25
25%
3.94
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Bordeaux xG
Total xG
3.08
1.69
Lille xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
18%
5.41
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
6%
17.58
11%
9.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.8 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bordeaux vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Bordeaux and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Bordeaux and 1.69 for Lille, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Bordeaux vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bordeaux's recent record stands at 3W 8D 7L from 18 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Bordeaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lille, meanwhile, have gone 6W 7D 5L across 18 games — 1.39 PPG, with D-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Lille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lille by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bordeaux heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bordeaux have managed 1W 4D 4L from 9 games — 0.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lille's away record stands at 2W 3D 4L across 9 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Bordeaux are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.28 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bordeaux have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games; Lille in 72%.
Last 18 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bordeaux
Blended
Lille
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bordeaux and Lille in coming into this match?
Bordeaux have gone 3W 8D 7L in their last 18 games (0.94 PPG), while Lille have gone 6W 7D 5L in their last 18 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bordeaux at home or Lille away?
Lille's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bordeaux at home: 0.78 PPG; Lille away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bordeaux and Lille runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Bordeaux
1
Draws
1
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Lille?
From 2 meetings on record, Bordeaux have won 0, Lille have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bordeaux and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2022, when Lille 0-0 Bordeaux.
Who has won more matches between Bordeaux and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Bordeaux at 89%, Lille at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Bordeaux and 67% for Lille. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bordeaux home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bordeaux play Lille?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 89% of Bordeaux's games and 78% of Lille's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bordeaux vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Bordeaux's matches and 67% of Lille's.
Do Bordeaux and Lille tend to score early?
Bordeaux have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Lille in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lille edge out Bordeaux 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Bordeaux 2-3 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bordeaux 1.39 xG and Lille 1.69 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Lille outscored their 1.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bordeaux attack 1.05 / defence 1.43 against Lille attack 0.91 / defence 1.15, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bordeaux 31% | Draw 25% | Lille 44%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bordeaux 72%, Lille 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 78%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bordeaux's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Lille's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win. Bordeaux (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lille (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.