Lille 2-1 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lille at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lille vs Estac Troyes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 17 as Lille welcome Estac Troyes to Stade Pierre-Mauroy. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 December 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lille — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Lille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lille's home record at Stade Pierre-Mauroy: 3W 3D 1L from 7 Ligue 1 appearances (1.71 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Estac Troyes stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estac Troyes away from home this season: 2W 1D 5L from 8 away games — 0.88 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
Lille carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Lille in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Estac Troyes in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 31% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lille 75% and Estac Troyes 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 56% | Estac Troyes 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 1.47 xG and Estac Troyes 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 0.929 / defence 1.091 | Estac Troyes attack 0.639 / defence 1.331. League average goals — home 1.191 / away 1.239. Estac Troyes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.331 — this is suppressing Lille's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Lille games / 16 Estac Troyes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lille 50% | Draw 29% | Estac Troyes 21%. Fair-value odds: Lille 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Estac Troyes 4.76. Lille hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lille at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lille offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lille 71% | Estac Troyes 38%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Dec 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 50% | Draw 29% | Estac Troyes 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Lille 1.47 / Estac Troyes 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 0.929 / def 1.091 | Estac Troyes attack 0.639 / def 1.331 | league avg home 1.191 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Lille (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Lille xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Estac Troyes xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lille vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Lille vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 4 December 2021 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What was the final score in Lille vs Estac Troyes?
Lille 2 - 1 Estac Troyes.
Where is Lille vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Estac Troyes part of?
Lille vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 50% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Lille and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will Lille vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Estac Troyes?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lille and Estac Troyes in?
Lille (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Estac Troyes (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lille's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Estac Troyes's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, Estac Troyes's attack versus Lille's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
50%
1.99
29%
3.44
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Lille xG
Total xG
2.34
0.86
Estac Troyes xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
21%
4.73
5%
20.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.3 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Lille and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Lille and 0.86 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lille come into this having played 16 games, going 5W 6D 5L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-W. The sample for Lille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Estac Troyes sit at 1.00 PPG from 16 outings (4W 4D 8L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lille on 1.31 PPG, Estac Troyes on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Lille's home form reads 3W 3D 1L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Estac Troyes have taken 1.00 points per game from 7 outings (2W 1D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lille are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 0.94 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lille have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lille and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 5W 6D 5L in their last 16 games (1.31 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 4W 4D 8L in their last 16 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Estac Troyes away?
Lille's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 1.71 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 June 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Jan 2023, when Lille won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lille's record when hosting Estac Troyes specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Lille
1
Draws
1
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Estac Troyes?
From 4 meetings on record, Lille have won 2, Estac Troyes have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lille and Estac Troyes last play each other?
They last met on 3 June 2023, when Estac Troyes 1-1 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Estac Troyes?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Estac Troyes see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lille 71%, Estac Troyes 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Lille) and 43% (Estac Troyes).
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lille play Estac Troyes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Lille's games and 43% of Estac Troyes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lille vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Lille's recent games and 43% of Estac Troyes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lille and Estac Troyes tend to score early?
Lille have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Estac Troyes in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lille edge out Estac Troyes 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Estac Troyes 2-1 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 1.47 xG and Estac Troyes 0.86 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 0.93 / defence 1.09 against Estac Troyes attack 0.64 / defence 1.33, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lille 50% | Draw 29% | Estac Troyes 21%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 56%, Estac Troyes 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lille's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lille 1.31 PPG, Estac Troyes 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lille win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.