Angers 0-1 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Angers at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Angers vs Clermont Foot encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Clermont Foot make the trip to Stade Raymond-Kopa to face Angers in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 December 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Angers (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Angers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Angers's home record at Stade Raymond-Kopa: 4W 1D 3L from 8 Ligue 1 appearances (1.62 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
Clermont Foot's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Clermont Foot's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 6L across 9 road games this term (0.56 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Angers's favour (1.30 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Angers half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Clermont Foot half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Angers 71% and Clermont Foot 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 53% | Clermont Foot 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 1.74 xG and Clermont Foot 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 0.952 / defence 1.321 | Clermont Foot attack 0.669 / defence 1.570. League average goals — home 1.164 / away 1.290. Clermont Foot bring a strong defensive rating of 1.570 — this is suppressing Angers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Angers games / 17 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Angers 50% | Draw 26% | Clermont Foot 24%. Fair-value odds: Angers 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Clermont Foot 4.17. Angers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Angers are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Angers if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Angers 50% | Clermont Foot 44%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade Raymond-Kopa • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Dec 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 50% | Draw 26% | Clermont Foot 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Angers 1.74 / Clermont Foot 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 0.952 / def 1.321 | Clermont Foot attack 0.669 / def 1.570 | league avg home 1.164 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Angers (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Angers xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Clermont Foot xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Angers vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Angers vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 12 December 2021 at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Clermont Foot?
Angers 0 - 1 Clermont Foot.
Where is Angers vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Clermont Foot part of?
Angers vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 50% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Angers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Angers and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Angers vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Clermont Foot?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Angers and Clermont Foot in?
Angers (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Clermont Foot (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Angers's attack at 0.95x the league average against Clermont Foot's defence at 1.57x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Clermont Foot's attack (0.67x) against Angers's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Angers Win
50%
2.00
26%
3.81
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Angers xG
Total xG
2.88
1.14
Clermont Foot xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
16%
6.24
4%
24.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.1 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Angers and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Angers and 1.14 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Angers's recent record stands at 6W 7D 4L from 17 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Angers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Clermont Foot, meanwhile, have gone 3W 5D 9L across 17 games — 0.82 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Angers by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Clermont Foot heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Angers have managed 4W 1D 3L from 8 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Clermont Foot's away record stands at 0W 2D 6L across 8 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Clermont Foot's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Angers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Angers are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.12 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Angers have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 17 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Angers and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 6W 7D 4L in their last 17 games (1.47 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 3W 5D 9L in their last 17 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Clermont Foot away?
Angers's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 1.62 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Clermont Foot have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Angers have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Angers
1
Draws
3
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Clermont Foot?
From 4 meetings on record, Angers have won 0, Clermont Foot have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 16 April 2023, when Clermont Foot 2-1 Angers.
Who has won more matches between Angers and Clermont Foot?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 50%, Clermont Foot 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Angers and 62% for Clermont Foot. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Angers keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Clermont Foot in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Angers play Clermont Foot?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Angers's recent matches and 50% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Angers vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Angers's matches and 62% of Clermont Foot's.
Do Angers and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Angers have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Clermont Foot defy the odds to beat Angers 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot beat Angers 0-1 at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.74 xG and Clermont Foot 1.14 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Angers fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.95 / defence 1.32 against Clermont Foot attack 0.67 / defence 1.57, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Angers 50% | Draw 26% | Clermont Foot 24%, with Angers to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Clermont Foot win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 53%, Clermont Foot 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Angers arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.82. Form was overturned, with Clermont Foot winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Angers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.