Rennes 1-2 Nice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rennes at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rennes vs Nice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rennes and Nice meet at Roazhon Park in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 December 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Rennes (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Rennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rennes have posted 6W 1D 2L at Roazhon Park — 2.11 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Roazhon Park.
Nice have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nice's away record: 5W 1D 2L from 8 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.62 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 8 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Rennes. A 0.90 PPG lead over Nice (2.30 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Rennes half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Nice half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rennes 35% versus Nice 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rennes 35% | Nice 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 1.18 xG and Nice 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 1.243 / defence 0.865 | Nice attack 0.897 / defence 0.817. League average goals — home 1.164 / away 1.290. Data: 17 Rennes games / 17 Nice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rennes 38% | Draw 32% | Nice 29%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Nice 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rennes at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rennes if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Rennes 33% | Nice 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rennes vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Roazhon Park • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Dec 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rennes 38% | Draw 32% | Nice 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Rennes 1.18 / Nice 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Rennes attack 1.243 / def 0.865 | Nice attack 0.897 / def 0.817 | league avg home 1.164 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Rennes (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Rennes xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Nice xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rennes vs Nice kick off?
Rennes vs Nice kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 12 December 2021 at Roazhon Park.
What was the final score in Rennes vs Nice?
Rennes 1 - 2 Nice.
Where is Rennes vs Nice being played?
The match is being played at Roazhon Park.
What competition is Rennes vs Nice part of?
Rennes vs Nice is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rennes vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Rennes a 38% chance of winning, Nice a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rennes vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Rennes and Nice will score (BTTS).
Will Rennes vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Nice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rennes and Nice in?
Rennes (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Nice (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Rennes's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Nice's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. Flip it around — Nice's attack (0.90x) against Rennes's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
38%
2.60
32%
3.11
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Rennes xG
Total xG
2.18
1.00
Nice xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
14%
7.08
9%
11.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rennes vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Rennes and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Rennes and 1.00 for Nice, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Rennes vs Nice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rennes come into this having played 17 games, going 9W 4D 4L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Rennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nice sit at 1.65 PPG from 17 outings (8W 4D 5L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.82 PPG for Rennes against 1.65 for Nice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Rennes's home form reads 6W 0D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.82 PPG overall — Rennes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Nice have taken 2.00 points per game from 8 outings (5W 1D 2L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rennes are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 1.47 scored and 0.88 conceded. Rennes's scoring rate against Nice's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Rennes have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games; Nice in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rennes
Blended
Nice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rennes and Nice in coming into this match?
Rennes have gone 9W 4D 4L in their last 17 games (1.82 PPG), while Nice have gone 8W 4D 5L in their last 17 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rennes at home or Nice away?
Rennes's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rennes at home: 2.25 PPG; Nice away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Rennes or Nice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rennes have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Nice in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rennes won 0-4 on 8 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rennes have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Nice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Rennes
1
Draws
5
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Nice?
From 10 meetings on record, Rennes have won 4, Nice have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rennes and Nice last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Nice 0-4 Rennes.
Who has won more matches between Rennes and Nice?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (Rennes) and 25% (Nice) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Rennes) and 50% (Nice).
On the defensive side: Rennes keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Nice in 50%; Nice in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rennes home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rennes play Nice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Rennes's recent matches and 25% of Nice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rennes vs Nice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Rennes's recent games and 50% of Nice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rennes and Nice tend to score early?
Rennes have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Nice in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nice defy the odds to beat Rennes 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nice beat Rennes 1-2 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 1.18 xG and Nice 1.00 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Nice outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 1.24 / defence 0.86 against Nice attack 0.90 / defence 0.82, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rennes 38% | Draw 32% | Nice 29%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Nice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 35%, Nice 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rennes's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Nice's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rennes 1.82 PPG, Nice 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nice win broke the near-deadlock. Rennes (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.