Clermont Foot 1-0 Lorient – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Clermont Foot at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Clermont Foot face Lorient.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Clermont Foot and Lorient meet at Stade Gabriel-Montpied in Ligue 1 (matchday 12). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Clermont Foot (all games): 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Clermont Foot's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Clermont Foot are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Lorient's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Lorient have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Clermont Foot, 2 for Lorient and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 May 2023, ended Clermont Foot 2–0 Lorient — a Clermont Foot win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Clermont Foot — key trading statistics (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Lorient — key trading statistics (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 52% versus Lorient 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 46% | Lorient 62%). Note also that Lorient surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Clermont Foot recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 41% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.27 xG and Lorient 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.687 / defence 1.022 | Lorient attack 1.043 / defence 1.350. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 1.030. Clermont Foot's attack rating of 0.687 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.27. Lorient's defence rating of 1.350 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Clermont Foot's projected output up. Data: built from Clermont Foot's last 48 games and Lorient's last 49.
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 37% | Draw 34% | Lorient 29%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.69 | Draw 2.94 | Lorient 3.47. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Clermont Foot are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Clermont Foot 40% (last 10 home games) | Lorient 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Lorient | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 12 | Venue: Stade Gabriel-Montpied • Kick-off: Sunday 12 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 37% | Draw 34% | Lorient 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Clermont Foot 1.27 / Lorient 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.687 / def 1.022 | Lorient attack 1.043 / def 1.350 | league avg home 1.368 / away 1.030 • Poisson stance: Clermont Foot (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Lorient xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Clermont Foot vs Lorient FAQs
What time does Clermont Foot vs Lorient kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Lorient kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Lorient?
Clermont Foot 1 - 0 Lorient.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Lorient being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Lorient part of?
Clermont Foot vs Lorient is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 12) (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Lorient?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 37% chance of winning, Lorient a 29% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Clermont Foot the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Lorient?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Clermont Foot and Lorient will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Clermont Foot vs Lorient have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Clermont Foot's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Lorient's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Lorient's attack (1.04x) against Clermont Foot's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from Clermont Foot's last 48 games and Lorient's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
37%
2.69
34%
2.94
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.37
1.10
Lorient xG
2.69
37%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
12%
8.07
8%
12.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.3 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.1 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Clermont Foot vs Lorient Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Lorient?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Lorient expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.10 for Lorient, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Lorient?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 48 outings, Clermont Foot have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 18W 11D 19L record — L-D-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Lorient's form line: 16W 15D 17L from 48 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Clermont Foot against 1.31 for Lorient. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Clermont Foot have posted 1.35 PPG from their last 23 home games (9W 4D 10L).
On the road, Lorient have gone 5W 8D 10L from their last 23 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Lorient are on 1.38 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lorient in 65%.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Blended
Lorient
Blended
Clermont Foot (Home) vs Lorient (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Clermont Foot
Blended
Lorient
Blended
❓ Clermont Foot vs Lorient Form FAQs
What form are Clermont Foot and Lorient in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 18W 11D 19L in their last 48 games (1.35 PPG), while Lorient have gone 16W 15D 17L in their last 48 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Lorient away?
Clermont Foot's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.35 PPG; Lorient away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Clermont Foot and Lorient, the earliest from October 2021. They cover more than one competition — Ligue 1, Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 25 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lorient won Lorient 5-0 Clermont Foot on 19 May 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Clermont Foot have gone 3W 0D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Lorient — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Clermont Foot
1
Draws
4
Lorient
Recent Meetings
❓ Clermont Foot vs Lorient H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Lorient?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Clermont Foot have won 3, Lorient have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Lorient last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 January 2025: Lorient 3-2 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Lorient?
Lorient have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Lorient are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 44%, Lorient 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Clermont Foot) and 61% (Lorient).
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot have failed to score in 39% of games; Lorient in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Lorient away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Clermont Foot vs Lorient Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Clermont Foot and Lorient matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Clermont Foot's games and 70% of Lorient's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Clermont Foot and Lorient matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 61% of Lorient's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Lorient matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 70% of Lorient's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Clermont Foot edge out Lorient 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot beat Lorient 1-0 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.27 xG and Lorient 1.10 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lorient landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.69 / defence 1.02 against Lorient attack 1.04 / defence 1.35, drawn from 48/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 37% | Draw 34% | Lorient 29%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 46%, Lorient 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Lorient's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 1.35 PPG, Lorient 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Clermont Foot win broke the near-deadlock. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Lorient (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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