Nantes 0-0 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nantes at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Nantes face Le Havre.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Le Havre make the trip to Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau to face Nantes in Ligue 1 (matchday 13). The match kicks off on Sunday 26 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Current Form
Nantes's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Nantes have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Le Havre (all games): 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Le Havre's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Nantes against 1.40 for Le Havre. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Nantes — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Le Havre — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantes 50% versus Le Havre 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantes 50% | Le Havre 32%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Nantes surrender their half-time lead 56% of the time, while Le Havre have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantes 1.53 xG and Le Havre 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantes attack 1.093 / defence 1.164 | Le Havre attack 0.837 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.037. Data: built from Nantes's last 50 games and Le Havre's last 12.
Result probabilities: Nantes 47% | Draw 30% | Le Havre 23%. Fair-value odds: Nantes 2.12 | Draw 3.32 | Le Havre 4.40. Nantes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nantes are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nantes if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Nantes 50% (last 10 home games) | Le Havre 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantes vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 13 | Venue: Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau • Kick-off: Sunday 26 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantes 47% | Draw 30% | Le Havre 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Nantes 1.53 / Le Havre 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Nantes attack 1.093 / def 1.164 | Le Havre attack 0.837 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.037 • Poisson stance: Nantes (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Nantes xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Le Havre xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Nantes vs Le Havre FAQs
What time does Nantes vs Le Havre kick off?
Nantes vs Le Havre kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What was the final score in Nantes vs Le Havre?
Nantes 0 - 0 Le Havre.
Where is Nantes vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What competition is Nantes vs Le Havre part of?
Nantes vs Le Havre is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 13) (France).
Who is favourite to win Nantes vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Nantes a 47% chance of winning, Le Havre a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Nantes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantes vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Nantes and Le Havre will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Nantes vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Nantes's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Le Havre's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. Flip it around — Le Havre's attack (0.84x) against Nantes's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from Nantes's last 50 games and Le Havre's last 12 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nantes Win
47%
2.12
30%
3.32
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Nantes xG
Total xG
2.54
1.01
Le Havre xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
17%
5.83
5%
20.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.2 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Nantes vs Le Havre Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantes vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Nantes and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Nantes and 1.01 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantes vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nantes come into this having played 50 games, going 11W 17D 22L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Le Havre sit at 1.80 PPG from 50 outings (23W 21D 6L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-D across their last five.
Le Havre carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Nantes — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Nantes's home form reads 7W 10D 8L across their last 25 home games, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Le Havre have taken 1.68 points per game from their last 25 away games (10W 12D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Le Havre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nantes are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.16 scored and 0.64 conceded.
Defensively: Le Havre in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantes
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
Nantes (Home) vs Le Havre (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Nantes
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
❓ Nantes vs Le Havre Form FAQs
What form are Nantes and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Nantes have gone 11W 17D 22L in their last 50 games (1.00 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 23W 21D 6L in their last 50 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantes at home or Le Havre away?
Le Havre's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantes at home: 1.24 PPG; Le Havre away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Nantes or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nantes have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Le Havre in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 22 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nantes have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Le Havre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Nantes
2
Draws
2
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Nantes vs Le Havre H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Le Havre?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Nantes have won 2, Le Havre have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nantes and Le Havre last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2026: Nantes 2-0 Le Havre.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantes 48%, Le Havre 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Nantes) and 32% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Le Havre in 44%; Nantes have failed to score in 36% of games; Le Havre in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantes home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Nantes vs Le Havre Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Nantes and Le Havre matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Nantes's recent matches and 44% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Nantes and Le Havre matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Nantes's recent games and 32% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantes and Le Havre matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Nantes's recent matches and 52% of Le Havre's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Nantes's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau, Regular Season - 13, as Nantes and Le Havre drew 0-0 in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 1.53 xG and Le Havre 1.01 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nantes fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Le Havre landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 1.09 / defence 1.16 against Le Havre attack 0.84 / defence 1.03, drawn from 50/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantes 47% | Draw 30% | Le Havre 23%, with Nantes to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 50%, Le Havre 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantes's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Le Havre's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Le Havre arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Nantes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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